Rising patient numbers and a shortage of GPs are threatening to overwhelm the system, doctors and patient groups have warned. Analysis of NHS England data by the Health Foundation found more than 28 million appointments were booked in March, among the highest recorded. Doctors' leaders say what they are being asked to achieve is 'undoable'.
Doncaster-based GP Dr Dean Eggitt described the situation as a 'tsunami of patients'. 'It just keeps coming and coming in this one massive, endless wave of patients who all are ill and need help and input,' he said. 'They're sick, they're complex and we've got very few places to send them. I wouldn't want to be my patient right now.'
The Health Foundation analysis also found that between 2019-20 and 2020-21, face-to-face consultations dropped from 79% to 54% of total appointments. There were 279 million appointments from April 2020 to March 2021, compared with 310 million the year before, indicating a huge amount of unmet need. Urgent cancer referrals dropped by 15%, potentially leaving 367,000 people with symptoms not sent for further investigations.
Sara Bainbridge from Macmillan Cancer Support said the disruption has had a 'devastating impact', leading to fewer diagnoses and reducing survival chances. Dr Becks Fisher, a GP in Oxford and senior policy fellow at the Health Foundation, added: 'Their health will have deteriorated as they have not been getting the help they need. The people we are seeing now are coming in with really complex problems. And it is those in deprived areas who have been affected the most.'
Latest figures show more than 400,000 people have been waiting over a year for routine treatment, up from 1,600 when the pandemic began. Dr Fisher warned: 'I think we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg at the moment – this is going to get a lot worse in the coming months.'
