Antarctica, currently the world's largest desert with an average of just 16cm of precipitation each year, could see a dramatic increase in rainfall as global temperatures rise. A new study led by Bethan Davies, a glaciologist at Newcastle University, warns that under faster warming scenarios of 2C or more this century, snow and rain could increase by more than 20%, with a greater proportion falling as rain.
The research, published in Frontiers in Environmental Science, examines the impact of a warming climate on the Antarctic peninsula. It finds that the combination of warmth and rain will lead to shrinking and faster-moving glaciers, weakened ice shelves, and more icebergs. These changes will have cascading effects on the ecosystem, including fewer algae and krill, reduced breeding platforms for penguins and seals, and an increased risk of invasive species such as crabs and mussels.
Historic structures, including the wooden expedition huts of Scott and Shackleton, are also expected to suffer from increased rainfall. However, the study offers a glimmer of hope: if warming can be limited to less than 1.5C, there will be time to adapt and the worst impacts can be avoided.
