Rising energy bills have given Reform and the Conservatives an opening to attack net zero, while the government hesitates to make the case for clean energy. Climate advocates fear net zero could become 'the next Brexit' as the oil crisis caused by the war on Iran begins to bite.
A powerful coalition of the well-funded Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, the Conservative party, some business interests, and the UK's right-wing media are engaged in an onslaught against the target of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Their central claim is that net zero is worsening the oil crisis, and that drilling in the North Sea is the remedy – despite clear evidence that more North Sea oil will do nothing to reduce UK bills, while climate action will reduce bills and protect the UK from future energy shocks.
While support for net zero remains strong among voters, with more than 60% in favour of climate action, experts warn that the same techniques that won the Brexit referendum for the Leave camp are now being brought to bear on the climate. Shaun Spiers, former executive director of the Green Alliance thinktank, said: 'These are largely the same people [as those who campaigned for Leave] and they are using similar arguments. They are blaming climate action for everything that’s going wrong – the cost of living, the economy – even though it’s clearly not to blame.'
Net zero can also seem remote to people, which does not help, added James Meadway, director of the Verdant thinktank. 'Like the EU, net zero is an idea that can seem big, vague, distant, technocratic and not easy to describe,' he said. 'People support it, they think it’s a good thing, but there is a distance between net zero and how people live.'
Even more worrying for the government is that while the challengers to net zero are outspoken and confident, the supporters can seem weak. Luke Tryl, executive director of the research group More in Common, said: 'It’s what we saw with Remain during the Brexit debate – the advocates are often sheepish about speaking positively about it. Some Labour politicians seem to regard net zero as a bit of a barnacle they are stuck with, rather than something positive.'
Farage has made no secret of his intention to find a new dividing line in British politics over the climate. He told the Sun on Sunday last year: 'This could be the next Brexit – where parliament is so hopelessly out of touch with the country.' Presenting net zero as an obsession of the 'elites', in opposition to the interests of the ordinary voter, is key. Yet this is not how people see the climate, or at least not at present. Sam Alvis, associate director of energy and environment at the Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank, said: 'People see that lots of aspects of climate action are just common sense, like renewable energy. They want homegrown clean energy, it’s popular. There is a lot of good faith in climate action – the UK public is actually very green.'
