The Met Office has released a chilling prediction for 2056, warning that the UK could face temperatures of 45C (113F) during a prolonged heatwave, as the nation experiences record-breaking heat this week. The forecast comes 50 years after the iconic summer of 1976, with the Met Office highlighting how climate change could intensify such events.
Professor Stephen Belcher CBE, Met Office Chief Scientist, said: "The heatwave this week will be a significant weather event, with a Red Extreme Heat warning issued. Human induced climate change has made events like this more likely and more intense." He added: "To see temperatures like this in the UK in June is sobering. Events like this bring home the implications of climate change, with very high temperatures and humidity bringing significant health implications from heat stress, as well as impacts to a range of sectors such as transport, energy and water supply."
Record-breaking temperatures this week
This week, the UK is expected to potentially break the record for the hottest June day, currently 35.6C (96.1F) set in 1976. The all-time UK temperature record of 40.3C (104.5F) was recorded in Coningsby, Lincolnshire on July 19, 2022. While 40C has only been reached once, the Met Office's 2056 scenario suggests such extremes could become more common.
The 2056 scenario: a stark warning
The Met Office's '2056 scenario' considers how a summer like 1976 could look under a warmer climate. It predicts possible highest temperatures of 45C in England, 41C in Wales, 38C in Scotland, and 30C in Northern Ireland. The scenario includes a prolonged heatwave lasting around two weeks, with nine consecutive days where temperatures exceed 40C somewhere in the UK.
"This scenario is not a forecast of a specific future event, but a scientifically plausible illustration designed to help us understand how risks could change as the climate warms," states the Met Office.
Climate change has fundamentally altered UK summers
Prof Belcher noted: "Weather is the national conversation in the UK and the summer of 1976 lives on in many memories. Since then, our climate has fundamentally changed, with average UK summers having warmed by around 1.4C. Crucially extremes have changed too." He added: "By using data from Met Office climate projections, we can glimpse into what an event like the 1976 summer would look like in the 2050s. It is a stark realisation to see the maximum temperatures reach 45C."
The summer of 1976 remains one of the most significant weather events in UK history, characterized by prolonged heat and drought with widespread impacts on water resources, health, and infrastructure. The new scenario highlights how such events could become more intense and frequent due to climate change.
