The world's largest mud volcano, which has displaced 13,000 families in East Java, Indonesia, is likely to continue erupting for another 26 years, according to a new study published in the Journal of the Geological Society.
The volcano, known as Lusi, first erupted in May 2006, spewing up to 180,000 cubic metres of mud per day at its peak—equivalent to 50 Olympic-sized swimming pools. It has since buried homes, schools, and farmlands over an area of seven square kilometres.
Lead author Professor Richard Davies, a geologist at Durham University, said the team used four years of data on mud flow rates to calibrate a computational model. The model simulated the underground aquifer, estimated at 2.5–3.5 km deep, which drives the eruption through a 50-metre central vent.
The cause of the eruption has been debated, with some attributing it to a magnitude 6.3 earthquake and others to a drilling blowout. In 2008, a panel of experts favoured the drilling hypothesis, and the drilling company agreed to compensate the 50,000 displaced people.
Professor Davies noted that there is a 10% chance the eruption could last over 100 years and a 90% chance it will continue for at least another decade. The estimate assumes the aquifer is not being recharged; if it is, the eruption could last even longer.
