Climate change is driving a gray whale “catastrophic mortality event” in the Pacific Ocean as melting sea ice depletes food sources and the animals starve, environmental groups warn. The estimated population has fallen from 20,000 in 2019 to fewer than 13,000 this year, and the deaths appear to be accelerating.
Sharp Decline and Contributing Factors
Environmental groups have petitioned the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to relist the gray whale under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), which would alleviate some problems. However, approval is a long shot as the Trump administration moves to gut wildlife protections. The whales are in “very, very serious trouble,” said Rick Steiner, an Alaska marine ecologist and chair of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility’s (PEER) board of directors.
“The stranding numbers last year and this year are enormous compared to their annual average,” Steiner said. “Stranding” refers to whales that wash up onshore. The gray whales, which travel from Baja California to Alaska to feed each year, came close to extinction in the 1970s but rebounded following robust conservation efforts. They were delisted from the ESA in 1994, which Steiner called a “colossal mistake.”
Dire Estimates and Starvation
The estimates are most dire for 2026: somewhere between 2,500 and 8,000 whales are estimated to have died so far this year, meeting the criteria for a “catastrophic mortality event.” Determining an exact number is difficult because marine biologists can only count stranded whales. The average annual number of gray whale strandings from 2006 to 2023 was 43, but rose to 179 in 2025. Through the first half of this year, 146 whale carcasses have been directly counted. Scientific literature estimates the ratio between unobserved mortalities offshore and observed mortalities onshore for gray whales is between 7-to-1 and 25-to-1.
The whales that wash up are emaciated, Steiner said, and the scientific consensus is that they are starving due to a loss of access to food sources driven by the dramatic reduction in sea ice around Alaska from climate change. While the whales have been resilient in the past, evidence points to a dire situation, said David Weller, a NOAA marine biologist, in an agency release. “The environment may now be changing at a pace or in ways that is testing the time-honored ability of the population to rapidly rebound while it adjusts to a new ecological regime,” Weller said.
Additional Threats and Political Challenges
Some stranded cetaceans show signs of being struck by ships and propellers. Indigenous populations in Russia hunt the whales, killing up to 40 annually. The groups claim the hunt is for subsistence, but the whale meat is actually fed to cattle, Steiner said. Also, the Trump administration is increasing oil drilling in the region, creating more pollution and threats.
State and federal governments can act, Steiner said. A NOAA response to the petition to relist the gray whales under the ESA is due in about a month. If the Trump administration ignores it or rejects the request, PEER will sue, Steiner said. The second Trump administration has so far not listed an animal on the endangered or threatened list and has taken unprecedented steps to try to dismantle the ESA. Steiner said the science was so clear and the whales were “immensely” popular in the US West, so he is hopeful that the gray whale will be the administration’s first listing. “The gray whales are in dire straits, so hopefully they see that and this can be the first one they list,” Steiner said.
Regional Mitigation Efforts
California has ship speed reduction zones in areas known to have higher gray whale concentrations. Though the program is voluntary, many ships reduce speed, and some station spotters to look out for whales, Steiner said. Those measures have reduced whale ship strike deaths in the region by about 50%. Oregon, Washington and Alaska have not implemented similar programs because of shipping industry opposition, Steiner said, but advocates are pushing for action. “If you lose thousands of whales in two years – that should concern everyone,” Steiner said.
