Former UN Climate Chief Warns Fossil Fuel Reliance Holds World Hostage
Christiana Figueres, the international climate negotiator who helped deliver the 2016 Paris Agreement, has issued a stark warning that countries are being "held hostage" by their dependence on fossil fuels. She described the health impacts of climate change as "the mother of all injustices" during the announcement of her new role as co-chair of a Lancet Commission examining how sea-level rise is reshaping health, wellbeing, and inequality globally.
Lancet Commission to Examine Health Harms of Rising Seas
The Lancet Commission, an international collaboration analysing major global health issues to influence policy, will focus specifically on the health consequences of sea-level rise. It will examine legal frameworks to hold nations accountable for these harms, with a final report due by September 2027. This initiative follows calls from Pacific island health ministers for greater global attention to sea-level rise as both a health and justice issue, beyond merely an environmental challenge.
Rising sea levels pose severe health threats by contaminating drinking water sources, damaging food supplies through salinisation of agricultural land, and forcing entire communities to abandon their homes. The commission will investigate the intergenerational trauma and inequity caused by such displacement, including the profound grief of leaving ancestral lands to protect future generations.
Pacific Islands Face Existential Threat
Sea-level rise is not uniform globally, with higher increases observed in the Pacific Ocean due to factors like weather patterns, ocean currents, and gravitational changes from melting ice sheets. This places island nations like Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji at extreme risk, potentially becoming uninhabitable within decades. Most of Tuvalu, for example, lies less than three metres above sea level.
Low-lying coastal cities worldwide are also under threat, including:
- New Orleans in the United States
- Cardiff and London in the United Kingdom
- Amsterdam in the Netherlands
Recent research published in the journal Nature in March revealed that ocean level projections have been underestimated due to inaccurate modelling. In some regions of the global south, particularly south-east Asia and the Indo-Pacific, sea levels may be 100cm to 150cm higher than previously anticipated.
Framing Climate Change as a Human Health Crisis
Figueres criticised the climate community for often explaining climate change in "way too esoteric terms," making it seem distant rather than immediate. She emphasised that framing these issues in terms of health, dignity, livelihoods, identity, and cultural continuity provides a more relatable context for understanding the urgency of reducing emissions.
"This really is about the human experience on this planet," she stated. "Just from a health perspective, it is now affecting drinking water, it's affecting sanitation, it's affecting food security because of the salinisation of all of these lands that are ocean front. It is happening now, it is a crisis of health and it is the mother of all injustices."
Legal Accountability and Enlightened Self-Interest
The commission will explore how to hold major polluters accountable for irreversible harm inflicted upon nations that contribute least to climate change. It will assess existing legal instruments, identify protection gaps, and consider new methods to safeguard health and uphold justice for affected communities.
A landmark 2025 advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that countries have a legal obligation to prevent climate harm, with potential consequences including compensation and restitution. Though non-binding, Figueres believes this opinion will increase climate litigation and lead to groundbreaking legal claims.
However, she cautioned that legally binding agreements alone are insufficient, citing Canada's withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol just before facing billions in penalties for missed emissions targets. "Having a legally binding agreement does not guarantee at all that any country would comply," she noted.
Instead, Figueres advocates for a combination of legal pressure, scientific evidence, and appealing to the "enlightened self-interest" of governments and corporations. "Companies should understand for their business continuation, they should reduce emissions. Governments should understand that in order for them to stabilise their economy, and protect their people, they should reduce emissions," she argued.
She concluded that "enlightened self-interest based on scientific facts – which is what the commission is going to put forward – is a much more effective route to emission reductions than a legally binding agreement from which anybody can withdraw."
Growing Resistance and Youth Concerns
Despite progress, UN experts warn of attempts by some states to block resolutions upholding the ICJ opinion, particularly those containing explicit references to fossil fuels and legal responsibility for climate harm. Vanuatu is leading a UN General Assembly resolution in May to support the ICJ findings, which could shape global implementation if passed.
Figueres also highlighted the psychological impact on young people growing up in a "world that is already ravaged by climate change." Many are so concerned about future conditions that they question whether to have children, reflecting deep anxiety about intergenerational wellbeing.
The commission's work aims to lay bare the consequences of inaction, providing scientific facts to drive meaningful change and protect vulnerable communities from the escalating health crisis posed by rising seas.
