The European Union's climate advisory board has urged countries to prepare for a catastrophic 3C of global heating, warning that current adaptation efforts are insufficient. Maarten van Aalst, a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), said Europe is already 'paying a price' for its lack of preparation but stressed that adapting is 'not rocket science'.
The ESABCC report describes current efforts as 'insufficient, largely incremental, often coming too late' and advises officials to prepare for a world 2.8-3.3C hotter than preindustrial levels by 2100. This would double the target set in the 2015 Paris agreement.
Recent weather extremes have highlighted Europe's vulnerability. In 2021, heavy rains killed 134 people in Germany's Ahr valley, and in 2024, 229 died in Spain's Valencia region. Summer heat kills tens of thousands annually, with studies attributing half to two-thirds of deaths to fossil fuel-driven temperature rises. Last year's wildfires burned more of Europe than ever recorded.
Van Aalst noted that twenty years ago, such extremes were expected primarily in poorer countries, but Europe is now vulnerable to conditions it has not faced before. He called for upgraded early warning systems and stressed that adaptation is 'common sense and low-hanging fruit'.
The ESABCC recommends the EU mandate climate risk assessments, embed climate resilience into all policies, and channel more money into protective measures. Van Aalst, who contributed to the last IPCC report, emphasised the need to avoid such extreme heating, warning that for many risks, 'we'll reach the limits of adaptation'.
