Europe Urged to Prepare for 3C Global Heating as Storms Batter Spain and Portugal
A top climate researcher has declared that keeping Europe safe from extreme weather "is not rocket science", as the European Union's climate advisory board issues an urgent call for countries to prepare for a catastrophic 3C of global heating. The warning comes as southern Europe, particularly Spain and Portugal, continues to be battered by severe storms causing widespread flooding and significant damage.
"Daunting but Doable" Task Ahead
Maarten van Aalst, a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), emphasized that while the continent is already "paying a price" for inadequate preparation, adapting to a hotter future represents "common sense and low-hanging fruit". Van Aalst, who previously led the climate centre at the International Red Cross and Red Crescent and now serves as director general of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, stated: "It is a daunting task, but at the same time quite a doable task. It's not rocket science."
Insufficient Adaptation Efforts
The ESABCC's new report delivers a stark assessment, describing current efforts to adapt to rising temperatures as "insufficient, largely incremental [and] often coming too late". The advisory board specifically recommends officials prepare for a world 2.8-3.3C hotter than preindustrial levels by 2100 - a dramatic rise that would double the level of global heating world leaders promised to aim for in the 2015 Paris agreement.
Such extreme temperature increases have left some leading climate scientists feeling hopeless, with the ESABCC recommending officials even stress-test hotter scenarios. The board's recommendations include:
- Mandating comprehensive climate risk assessments across the EU
- Embedding climate resilience into all policy decisions
- Channeling more funding - including from private sources - into protective measures
Europe's Growing Vulnerability
Recent weather extremes in Europe have surprised climate scientists with their intensity and adaptation experts with their lethality as rising temperatures continue to warp the climate system. Van Aalst noted: "Twenty years ago, we'd have said those extremes are indeed going to be a problem, but primarily in poorer countries that cannot cope. What we're now noticing is that Europe itself is vulnerable, especially for conditions it has not faced in the past."
The evidence of this vulnerability is mounting across the continent:
- Heavy rains supercharged by climate breakdown killed 134 people in Germany's Ahr valley in 2021
- The same phenomenon claimed 229 lives in Spain's Valencia region in 2024
- Summer heat kills many tens of thousands of Europeans annually, with studies attributing 50-67% of deaths to temperature rises from fossil fuel pollution
- Last year's wildfires torched more European land than scientists have ever recorded
Portugal's Storm Crisis
Just last week, Portugal faced calls to develop comprehensive climate adaptation plans as the country endured an unprecedented series of storms that killed at least 16 people and caused approximately €775 million (£675 million) in damage. The Portuguese army was deployed to assist residents affected by severe flooding, highlighting the scale of the emergency response required.
Van Aalst emphasized the need for improved preparedness systems: "It turns out our preparedness is not so great. And we have real work to do to upgrade our early warning systems." The ESABCC report, while not providing specific investment estimates, stresses that substantial funding will be necessary to keep Europe safe from increasingly extreme weather events.
Limits of Adaptation
As an author of the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, van Aalst delivered perhaps the most crucial warning: "The IPCC is clear this is a very problematic future with rapidly rising risks. And for a number of risks, we'll reach the limits of adaptation." This underscores the fundamental importance of avoiding such extreme heating scenarios altogether, even as Europe works to adapt to the changes already underway.
The flooded streets of Grazalema in southern Spain serve as a visual reminder of the immediate challenges Europe faces, while the broader scientific warnings point to far greater threats on the horizon if adequate preparation and mitigation measures are not implemented urgently.
