The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance before November, raising concerns about intensified heatwaves and drought across Asia. Experts say the natural weather pattern, combined with human-driven climate change, could supercharge its impacts, particularly in India, China, and Southeast Asia.
In India, El Niño is expected to weaken the monsoon, which is already predicted to deliver below-average rainfall. This could prolong deadly heatwaves, worsen drought conditions, and threaten food security. Agricultural expert Devender Sharma described the combination of extreme heat and El Niño as a 'deadly combination' for Indian agriculture. Mumbai, which relies on rain-fed lakes for water, faces a potential crisis as reservoirs have only 45 days of water left.
China is bracing for both flooding and drought, with El Niño expected to increase rainfall in southern China by up to 20% and raise temperatures nationwide. The National Climate Centre warned that El Niño's effects would peak in autumn and winter, leading to 'unpredictable and extreme' weather on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. Authorities have advised stockpiling emergency supplies and issued severe rain and storm warnings.
Southeast Asia faces prolonged heat, severe drought, wildfires, and air pollution, according to Professor Justin Sentian of Universiti Malaysia Sabah. The region's agriculture, power grids, and water supplies are under significant stress as El Niño unfolds against a backdrop of climate change.
