University of Sydney researchers have found that global heating driven by fossil fuel use could worsen housing affordability, push up rents, and quadruple homelessness in a decade unless serious steps to cut emissions are taken. The study, published in the journal Cities, models the housing market system using two decades of public data and tests its response under different climate scenarios.
Key Findings
The researchers found that climate change affects housing and rental affordability under both high and low-emission scenarios, but vulnerable households are worst-hit under a fossil-fuelled future. Homelessness could be four times higher by 2036 under a high-emissions scenario, as homes become more expensive and rents rise relative to incomes.
Scenarios Used
The scenarios are based on five plausible social and economic pathways developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The low-emissions scenario describes a future where collective action leads to a more sustainable future consistent with the Paris agreement goal to keep global heating below 2C and aim to limit the increase to 1.5C. In contrast, fossil fuel resources continue to be exploited under the high-emissions path.
Australia's Commitments
Australia, together with other countries, has committed to the Paris agreement and has set targets to cut emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, and 62-70% by 2035 and net zero by 2050.
Expert Commentary
Associate Prof Nader Naderpajouh from the University of Sydney said the impacts of global heating on housing were very unequal and particularly affected renters and people experiencing homelessness. He noted that climate change does not feature prominently in housing policy discussions but should. We cannot address the housing system by one blanket policy, he said, and policies or interventions should prioritise and tailor support for renters on low incomes, and to address homelessness.
Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh, lead author of the paper, said the pressure is already on for Australians in the housing market and we see worsening social inequities in the future. We need to design fairer housing policies or this is the trajectory we are heading towards. Our findings show that any new housing policies need to undergo climate-change simulations to make sure they do not deepen inequality.
Economist Nicki Hutley, a councillor with the Climate Council, said climate change should be front and centre as a consideration of housing policy, both in terms of emissions reduction through energy efficiency and better building standards, as well as the resilience of homes, livelihoods and communities to extreme weather.
Federal Budget Measures
The federal budget's investment in social housing for more than 4,000 young people was an example of a targeted measure, but a drastic increase in social housing is needed. Hutley said the housing and tax changes in the budget showed the federal government is capable of acting on issues beyond one electoral cycle. We need them to take the same approach to climate change.
