BBC weather forecasters have indicated that the UK and Europe could experience further heatwaves this summer, with 'significant bursts' of heat expected in the coming months. Simon King and Sarah Keith-Lucas, the broadcaster's lead weather presenters, stated that early forecasts suggest 'an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts' later in the summer, with above-average temperatures anticipated for July and August.
Record-Breaking Heat in Wales
This year has already seen historic heatwaves in Wales. On Tuesday, May 26, Wales recorded its hottest May day at 32.9°C, and in June, temperatures soared to a new June record of 35.9°C, also setting an all-time record for Cardiff. It is the first year since 1911 that record-breaking temperatures have been observed in two consecutive months.
Forecasters' Verdict
King and Keith-Lucas explained that MeteoGroup, the meteorological group providing data to the BBC, suggests a 'few notable high temperature spikes' remain possible later in the summer. They noted that MeteoGroup has a history of accurate seasonal forecasts. The presenters also highlighted the role of human-induced climate change, stating: 'Human-induced climate change is shifting the baseline temperature higher and this is making our heatwaves hotter, more frequent and longer lasting.'
Risk of Extreme Temperatures
Met Office scientists have warned of an increasing likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK, revealing that the chance of exceeding 40°C is accelerating. According to Met Office projections, if global warming continues at its current pace, temperatures in the mid-forties could become a serious possibility for the UK by 2050. An analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) concluded that the extreme June heat across Western Europe would have been 'impossible just a few decades ago.'
El Niño Complication
A further complication this summer is the formal declaration of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, a weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures. Some climate experts suggest this year's El Niño could be a 'super' El Niño, though any impact on UK weather is expected later in the year.
Short-Term Forecast
In the near term, the UK is in for a warm but less exceptional period. The forecast from Thursday, July 2 to Sunday, July 26 indicates a drier start to July for most, with cloudier conditions towards the west but good sunshine elsewhere. Northwestern parts may see rain accompanied by strong winds at times. Temperatures are expected to start near average in the north and slightly warmer in the south, but will likely increase as high pressure dominates into the second week of July, especially across England and Wales.
High pressure is slightly more likely than low pressure during early July, suggesting a greater chance of settled and drier than average conditions. However, outbreaks of rain and stronger winds are possible at times, particularly further north. As normal for the time of year, there is still a chance of heavy and thundery showers interrupting warm and settled weather. Towards the end of July, there is no reliable signal for preferring any one weather pattern, but temperatures are likely to be above normal overall, with a greater than normal chance of hot conditions developing.
