In response to George Monbiot's recent article on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), scientists Andrew Watson and Phil Williamson have provided clarification on the current state of this critical ocean system. Monbiot's piece, published on 23 April, suggested that a catastrophic climate event is imminent, with some scientists believing the Amoc is more likely than not to collapse entirely. However, the experts argue that while the system is under threat, the situation is not as dire as portrayed.
Weakening versus collapse
Andrew Watson, professor emeritus at the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, points out that the recent paper projects an increased chance of the Amoc weakening by 50% by the end of the century if fossil-fuel emissions continue. This is a slowdown, not a complete collapse. He emphasizes that the outcome is not certain and that sustained efforts to reduce emissions can still avert the worst-case scenario. "What the science is saying is that the fate of the Amoc is in the balance and actions we collectively take now to influence it," Watson stated.
The need for accurate language
Phil Williamson, honorary associate professor at the School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, supports the idea of updating terminology to reflect the severity of the climate crisis. He suggests that terms like "climate chaos" or "climate catastrophe" might be more appropriate than "global heating" or "climate emergency." Williamson warns that while changes to the Amoc would not be as sudden as depicted in the film The Day After Tomorrow, they could still be too rapid for effective adaptation. He notes that such rearrangements of the climate system have occurred in Earth's history and could lead to disastrous winter cooling in some regions alongside heating in others.
The scientists urge the public and policymakers to take the risks seriously without falling into despair, as there is still time to influence the outcome through collective action.
