According to a research paper published in the journal Science in 1960, the world will end on November 13, 2026 — a Friday the 13th. University of Illinois researchers reached this conclusion by examining population figures.
'At this date, human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millennia,' the authors wrote. Lead author Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his co-authors added: 'Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve to death. They will be squeezed to death.'
Why November 13?
The researchers derived their specific timetable by reviewing 24 estimates of world population dating back 2,000 years. Unlike fruit flies, which die off when overcrowded in a milk bottle due to competition and resource scarcity, humans can cooperate, allowing numbers to increase to 'infinity and that the clever population annihilates itself.'
To prevent this, the researchers proposed a 'peoplo-stat' to cap population, such as taxing families with three children to halve birth rates. 'Space travel has been proposed recently as an alternative,' they concluded. 'It is only unfortunate that no re-entry permit to Earth can be given to these space-trotters.'
Professor von Foerster told The New York Times that his team had developed a wider timetable for humanity's doom but chose November 13, 2026, because Friday the 13th is historically unlucky.
Overpopulation fears through history
Eight years after von Foerster's predictions, biologist Paul Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb, predicting apocalypse due to too many mouths to feed. He claimed hundreds would starve in the 1970s and 'England will not exist in the year 2000.' These fears persisted in popular culture, with 1972's Dead Planet depicting government bans on pregnancy and 1973's Soylent Green imagining an overcrowded future.
Thankfully, disease-resistant crops, improved medical treatments, and urbanisation have prevented such outcomes. Today, more than 8.3 billion people live on Earth, up from around 3 billion in 1960. A baby born today will be 54 in 2080, when the UN estimates humanity will peak at over 10 billion.
Population peak and decline
Projections for 2100 show India as the most populous country (1.505 billion), followed by China (633 million), Pakistan (511 million), Nigeria (477 million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (431 million), the US (421 million), Ethiopia (367 million), Indonesia (296 million), Tanzania (263 million), and Bangladesh (209 million). After that, for the first time in two centuries, humanity will shrink.
Demographers now worry about too few people, as the 'peoplo-stat' has worked too well. Longer lifespans lead to smaller families, and countries like China, Germany, and Russia have already peaked, while Japan and the US struggle with ageing populations.
Joel Cohen, a professor and mathematical biologist at Columbia University, told Popular Science that von Foerster's prophecy was poorly timed. 'Von Foerster didn't know at the time, and in fact, nobody knew,' he said, 'the all-time peak happened in the early 1960s.'
Donald Trump, self-declared 'fertilisation president' of the US, is attempting to encourage a baby boom through tax breaks for parents. However, Cohen argued that leaders should focus on feeding already-born children rather than promoting more births. In 2024, 150.2 million children under five were too short due to malnutrition, according to the World Health Organization.
'We are doing so poorly by the children we have that I can't understand why the emphasis is on making more children,' added Cohen. 'We're talking about having more children when we don't take care of the children we have. What the heck is that?'
