The Aberdeen South by-election is set to be a pivotal contest, with the SNP facing potential voter punishment over the Peter Murrell scandal while the Tories struggle with their own brand toxicity. Daily Record Political Editor Paul Hutcheon describes the race as too close to call, with both parties displaying weaknesses in a fractious campaign.
Background and Stakes
Two Westminster by-elections are taking place in Scotland, but Aberdeen South is the more unpredictable. Caused by the election of former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn to Holyrood, party insiders worry a two-horse race with the Tories could be a photo finish. By-elections are invariably held against an unfavourable backdrop for governments, but the circumstances facing the SNP are particularly challenging.
SNP's Challenges
Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell recently pleaded guilty to embezzling over £400,000 party funds, much of it from pro-independence supporters, and faces jail. Admitting the party was led for twelve years by a conman is not ideal for motivating the core vote. Additionally, the SNP's confusing position on the region's struggling oil and gas industry—the top economic issue—is a handicap. While candidate Richard Thomson and Flynn support boosting the ailing sector, and John Swinney has softened on Nicola Sturgeon's 'presumption' against new developments, the party's carefully worded position has been exploited by rivals.
Tory Advantages and Obstacles
The Scottish Tories, with candidate Douglas Lumsden, have made the by-election a referendum on oil and gas. They pushed Flynn close in the similar Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine seat at Holyrood on May 7th, only falling short when Reform UK split the right-wing vote. Party leader Kemi Badenoch has committed a future Conservative government to issuing new licenses for the North Sea and scrapping the EPL windfall tax. However, local voters remember it was the Tories who introduced the EPL, a super tax they now claim destroys jobs. The Tories remain the most toxic brand in Scottish politics, and Scots who ditched them for Reform UK are a stubborn bunch angry with the previous government.
Labour's Decline
Labour, meanwhile, is set for an annihilation in Aberdeen South. Starmer's party won 24.7% in the seat in 2024 but will be lucky to secure 5% today. A combination of Labour's hostility to new oil and gas drilling, support for the EPL, and Starmer's deep unpopularity could see them losing their deposit.
Key Factors
Two factors are key to the outcome. One, will the SNP lose voters to the sofa after the Murrell scandal but pick up disaffected Labour supporters who loathe the Tories? Two, can the Conservatives persuade enough Reform backers to hold their nose and return to their first love? The result in Makerfield could shape UK politics for a decade, but Aberdeen South may trigger a rethink on UK energy policy and send a message to a scandal-hit SNP.
