Many people are wondering who will lift the trophy at this year's FIFA World Cup, and some reckon they've cracked it – all thanks to an episode of The Simpsons. Claims are currently spreading like wildfire on social media suggesting the US sitcom has 'predicted' which teams will contest the final of this year's footballing showpiece. But is there any truth to it?
Origin of the Claim
The speculation originates from an authentic scene in a 1997 episode titled "The Cartridge Family" (Season 9, Episode 5). The episode merely features a TV advert promoting a dull, tedious football match to determine "which nation is the greatest on Earth." Screenshots from the episode show Mexico vs. Portugal competing in the match, however the show never mentions the year 2026, the FIFA World Cup, or Cristiano Ronaldo, who appears in some viral posts.
Far from the viral claims suggesting a glorious victory, the match in the episode is painfully slow and tedious, ultimately causing the Springfield crowd to riot and descend the stadium into complete mayhem. This particular prediction theory isn't new. Internet users routinely resurrect this very same clip of Mexico vs. Portugal and claim it is a "prophecy" whenever a major tournament comes around.
Debunked by Fact-Checkers
Fact-checkers have previously debunked the identical claim circulating during both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. It has gained additional momentum for 2026 simply because Mexico is one of the host nations. According to fact-checking organizations, the scene has no connection to the 2026 tournament.
What The Simpsons Has Actually Predicted
Despite the claim above being incorrect, The Simpsons has remarkably predicted dozens of real-world events, from significant political upheavals and corporate takeovers to technological advances and cultural phenomena. While the programme has earned a reputation for "prophecy," writers put this down to a blend of incisive social commentary, a writing team stacked with mathematics graduates, and simple statistical likelihood across more than 750 episodes.
Major Political and Historical Events
- Donald Trump's presidency: The 2000 episode "Bart to the Future" specifically joked that Lisa Simpson inherited a colossal budget crisis from "President Trump."
- Disney Buying 21st Century Fox: A 1998 episode featured a studio sign reading "21st Century Fox, A Division of Walt Disney Co." two decades before the actual takeover took place.
- The FIFA Corruption Scandal: In 2014, an episode showed a FIFA-style football executive being arrested for corruption, 12 months before the enormous, real-world FBI raid on FIFA headquarters.
- US Capitol Riots: A 1996 episode ("The Day the Violence Died") showed an angry, armed mob storming the steps of the US Capitol.
Technology and Science Innovations
- Smartwatches and video calls: A 1995 episode set in the future featured characters using voice-activated wristwatches and making video calls.
- Mass of the Higgs Boson: In 1998, Homer stands before a blackboard and scribbles down a complicated mathematical equation. Scientists later observed that his formula predicted the mass of the "God Particle" 14 years before its official discovery.
- Autocorrect blunders: A 1994 episode showed a memo on an Apple Newton changing "Beat up Martin" to "Eat up Martha," forecasting the familiar frustrations of smartphone autocorrect.
Pop Culture and Sports
- Lady Gaga's Super Bowl performance: A 2012 episode depicted Lady Gaga soaring over a stadium crowd on a harness, an exact visual replica of her actual 2017 Super Bowl halftime show entrance.
- Cypress Hill and the London Symphony Orchestra: A 1996 gag about the hip-hop act mistakenly booking a classical orchestra turned into a genuine, eagerly awaited real-life collaborative performance in London.
- Super Bowl winners: During the 1990s, the programme correctly predicted the precise winner of the Super Bowl three consecutive years immediately before the matches were broadcast.
Fake Predictions to Look Out For
Given the programme's track record, numerous internet hoaxes circulate. The Simpsons did not predict the 2019 Notre Dame fire (the image was photoshopped). They also did not predict Donald Trump descending a golden escalator before it occurred; that particular clip was animated after the real-life 2015 event took place.
