Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan's leadership is under threat after her deputy, Ben Carroll, announced he would contest the position. The challenge follows a factional decision to tell Allan she had lost caucus support, with a delegation of ministers and MPs urging her to stand down on Monday morning. Allan refused and declared she would contest any ballot.
During a cabinet meeting, Police Minister Anthony Carbines and frontbenchers Gabrielle Williams and Ingrid Stitt argued for a royal commission into corruption allegations on the government's Big Build projects. Carbines said a new crime agency would lack credibility without such an inquiry. Allan repeated her stance that a national trade union royal commission already covered the issue and the government was addressing it.
Internal Fears and Polling Troubles
The move reflects internal fears that Labor cannot win the November election under Allan. Despite an 11-seat buffer in 2022, polling shows the party on track to lose. Allan's close ties to former premier Daniel Andrews and her policy shifts—like abandoning a plan to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 14 and introducing tough bail laws—have alienated progressive voters without convincing others of a genuine break.
Colleagues describe Allan as reactive and a poor communicator. The Big Build allegations, first reported by Nine newspapers two years ago, have eroded confidence. Allan was the transport infrastructure minister at the time and has apologized for criminal conduct but rejected a royal commission.
Voter Concerns and Leadership Prospects
Labor MPs say voters regularly question integrity, with one backbencher noting calls every second day about the allegations. One MP said, “The issue has overshadowed every single achievement we have made. We can’t talk about the Metro Tunnel, we can’t talk about West Gate Tunnel, free public transport, new hospitals and schools.” Another said the government must be accountable: “At the moment no one believes that’s happening in a meaningful way.”
Carroll is seen as sufficiently removed from the infrastructure portfolio to draw a line under the controversy. He had previously ruled out challenging, but after Allan refused to stand down, he announced his intention. He has told colleagues he would establish a royal commission if elected leader. Allan's supporters argue this could be politically disastrous, with one minister saying, “It would be five minutes of relief, and then we’d be right back where we are now. Every day of the campaign there would be hearings. Every day there would be media reporting. How on earth would that help us?”
Backers of Carroll point to a June poll showing 40% of Labor voters believed Allan should be replaced. However, after three terms in office, the party may face the reality that voters simply want change.
