New BBC statistics have revealed which Strictly Come Dancing contestant could win the 24th series. After the first week's scores were released, one fan believes they have worked out which 2026 contestant could walk away with the Glitterball trophy.
Week One Scores Point to Frontrunner
Breaking down the series' wins and losses over the past 23 series, the fan revealed that 11 series winners have started their Strictly journey with a Cha Cha Cha, while four have started with a Jive. Being first or last in the running order also seems to tip the scales in the contestants' favour and has produced 12 series winners so far. In the last six series alone, the Strictly winner has performed as one of the final three couples in week one on four occasions.
Looking closer at the scores, 27 is the most common week-one score for a series winner, with seven champions starting with that exact score. In the first 13 years of Strictly, the top three in the leaderboard in week one won the series in all but two. In the last 10 years, the top three on the leaderboard have won five times.
Judge Scores and the Top Contender
Craig Revel Horwood has scored 18 series winners with a six or above in week one, with only five winning couples scoring under six. Looking at the other judges, only four series winners didn't have at least one mark higher than six from any of the other judges on the panel.
Using all this and comparing it to week one of the 2026 series, there is one strong contestant who appears to be the strongest frontrunner as this year's champion. At the top of the list is EastEnders' favourite, Lacey Turner, who matches on five out of the six categories. Hot on her heels is Australian singer-songwriter Delta Goodrem, who matches in four categories, while Northern Irish YouTuber John Nellis matches in three.
First Elimination of the Series
It comes after Amy Dowden and her celebrity dance partner became the first couple to be voted out of the series for the second year running. On Sunday night (October 4), the star-studded line-up returned to the ballroom floor after dancing their hearts out for Movie Week. The first two couples to find themselves in the dreaded dance-off were Amy and her dance partner, celebrity hairstylist Chris Appleton, who competed against actor Jamie Winstone and her dance partner Carlos Gu.
Both performed their stellar Cha Cha Chas for the judges, but ultimately, all four judges unanimously voted to save Jamie and Carlos. In their exit speech, Chris shared with the audience how he felt a "whirlwind of emotion", adding: "I'm 43 and got good at doing what I did, which is hair. So to come into something like this, I felt so out of my comfort zone." The professional dancer added how she was "heartbroken" to be out of the competition so soon, knowing she would not get to dance with Chris again, but said the "friendship for life" she had formed with Chris was enough to mend her broken heart.
Viewers took to X, formerly Twitter, to share their thoughts on the result, with many feeling sorry for Amy. One user penned: "So sad for Amy and Chris! I adore Amy, I really hope she gets the chance to lift that glitterball someday." Another added: "Second year in a row, Amy has been the first to be eliminated. She is a wonderful person and a beautiful dancer, but the BBC keeps doing her dirty."
Viewers will have to stay tuned to see who will be eliminated next week after the first brutal axing of the series. Strictly Come Dancing airs on Saturdays from 6.20pm on BBC One or BBC iPlayer.
