Pupil numbers in Swansea are forecast to fall by more than 5,000 in six years, challenging the long-term viability of some schools. Education officers have modelled the wider declining birth rate with Swansea-specific data and estimate there will be 26,678 primary and secondary pupils in 2032 compared to 32,028 now – a drop of 5,350.
Demographic trend poses significant challenges
A report before a council panel said the demographic trend presented significant challenges for education planning, funding, and the long-term sustainability of some schools. When the panel met, Cllr Robert Smith, cabinet member for education and learning, said the forecasting wasn’t an exact science, that Swansea’s demography could change, and population “bulges” had materialised before. But he added: “These figures are as robust as they can be.”
Primary and secondary schools with fewer than 90 and 600 pupils respectively are defined by the council as “very small” and faced particular pressures, said the report, when they operated at below those thresholds due to limited economies-of-scale and reduced pupil-led funding. Also, if a primary school fell below 90 pupils it would no longer be funded for a deputy head teacher. The report said several primaries operated at or close to the 90-pupil threshold in Swansea while one secondary was close to the 600-pupil threshold.
Small schools under pressure
Cllr Mike Day said during a previous period of school reorganisation in Swansea it would have been cheaper to send pupils from a particular small school to Eton. A council education manager, when asked if any primaries currently had fewer than 90 pupils, said Knelston Primary School, Gower, had come close but had regained some ground. “That’s probably the closest we have seen going below 90,” she said.
The projected 5,350-pupil decline – 17% less than now – consists of an estimated 3,968 drop at primary level and 1,382 drop at secondary, with a lower proportion of reductions at Welsh-language schools. Across Wales an 8.1% decline in school-age population between 2021 and 2031 has been estimated by an education body.
Potential solutions and next steps
Ways of addressing it in Swansea, said the report, could include more community use of school buildings, smaller class sizes, and ensuring investment “is targeted towards sustainable provision”. Cllr Day said engagement with all relevant groups was critical if further reorganisation was to take place. He recalled a consultation with parents who overwhelmingly backed the idea of removing surplus places “but you can imagine what happened then when a proposal was put forward to close a particular school”.
Cllr Lyndon Jones, who heads the education scrutiny panel, requested a breakdown of the estimated pupil decline on a school-by-school basis. Cllr Smith said schools viewed as small in Swansea might be seen as medium-sized in rural council areas. He recalled visiting a rural school once with five or six pupils and seeing them all sitting at the same table for lunch. “The older children were teaching the younger ones how to use a knife and fork,” he said. “Take away the sentiment of that, there were all sorts of issues about not just the cost which was immense but also what kind of experience were you able to offer children in a school that small. We are not facing that issue in Swansea.”
