The American military has carried out its ninth consecutive nightly attack on Iran, broadening its targeting to civilian infrastructure amid claims the US is “running out of targets.” The campaign is feared to be steering towards all-out war, with peace talks in tatters and Tehran becoming more entrenched.
Shift to Civilian Infrastructure
Experts suggest the US campaign is forcing Tehran to adopt a more “horizontal” approach by spreading the war to attacks on Gulf State neighbours. This has led to increasing concern that Iran will deploy its proxies to target US facilities globally or pivot towards allies such as the UK or Europe.
A western security source told the Daily Mirror: “The change in the US attacks shows that they may be running out of military targets and attacking civilian infrastructure which have no military applications. The US will try to present this as shaping the battlefield, however it seems a hollow boast. Tactical attacks without an obvious strategy continue and are always a recipe for failure.”
Retaliation and Casualties
As Iranian military options degrade, retaliation is expected in more asymmetric ways, using Yemeni Houthis, cyber attacks, or targeting US interests outside the region. The latest US service deaths have not gone down well in the US, with three personnel killed—two from an Iranian attack on their Jordanian base and a third while tackling an explosive device in Iraq. A fourth is still recorded as “missing” feared dead from an attack last week.
US-based thinktank The Soufan Centre, run by former FBI man and Middle East expert Ali Soufan, said in a report: “President Trump is increasing pressure on Iran to return to negotiations by expanding U.S. airstrikes to civilian infrastructure — particularly bridges that connect Iran’s Persian Gulf coastline to its major cities — but Iran’s continuing lethal missile barrages call U.S. strategy into question.”
Horizontal Escalation and Energy Chokepoints
The Soufan report also confirmed fears that Iran will encourage proxies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It stated: “Iranian leaders have given the Houthis in Yemen a green light to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another key energy chokepoint, to increase pressure on energy markets and the global economy.”
As US strikes continued, a ship caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps later claimed two oil tankers were blown up after attempting to transit through the southern route of the strait.
Iran's Response
US President Donald Trump said “Iran was hit very hard,” but Iran reacted forcibly. Iranian foreign minister Esmail Baghaei said an attack on a watchtower in Chabahar was similar to the conduct of “terrorist groups like ISIS” and “completely incompatible with international law and the principles of civilised humanitarian conduct.”
