Russian soldiers are being killed or severely injured within minutes of arriving on the frontline, according to a leading historian. Professor Peter Frankopan of Oxford University stated that eight Russians are being killed or wounded for every Ukrainian, with over 30,000 Russian soldiers losing their lives this year alone.
Recruits survive just 20 minutes on the battlefield
In a column for Foreign Policy, Professor Frankopan explained that new recruits are being killed within 20 minutes of setting foot on the battlefield. Russian military bloggers report that an average fighter can expect to survive between 10 days and three weeks from arriving at a training ground. The high casualty rate is attributed to new military technology and tactics, particularly the widespread use of drones by Ukrainian forces against both military targets and key oil infrastructure.
Putin offers huge bonuses to attract recruits
To entice new soldiers, President Vladimir Putin is offering bonuses of up to £60,000 and debt relief of up to £105,000. State media reports that 420,000 people have signed one-year-long contracts. However, the accelerating casualty rate underscores the dire situation on the front lines.
War impacts Russia's fuel supply and consumer mood
Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted oil infrastructure, leading to fuel shortages at petrol stations. Putin acknowledged to senior officials that supply issues had caused problems and said he was considering measures such as a ban on diesel exports. The war's impact is increasingly felt by Russian consumers, turning public mood against the president.
Last month, business leaders expressed 'profound disappointment' in Putin's leadership. One told the Guardian that there is a sense a 'growing catastrophe is looming' amid concern over 'utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions'. The source added: 'People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.'
Putin compared to Tsar Nicholas II
Professor Frankopan draws parallels between Putin and Tsar Nicholas II, who was ousted in 1917 following the First World War. He notes Putin's missteps, including 'micromanaging the war, disappearing for long spells, and then making bizarre public appearances'. Frankopan predicts that Putin will try to cling to power by any means, even 'pull the heads of others under the water' to stay on top. 'Putin will do what it takes to stay in power—not least since the consequences of his stepping down or being forced to step down are unforeseeable; they could very well lead to his imprisonment or death,' he wrote. 'If a quarter of a century has taught one thing about Putin, it is that he is a poor strategist and decision-maker. He is used to having his cake and eating it.'
