Criminals hired by Russian and Iranian spies could spark a military conflict because they are more “reckless” than trained intelligence officers, experts have warned. Agents recruited for sabotage, kidnap, assassination, arson, or intimidation conspiracies are more likely to hit the wrong targets or use “indiscriminate” tactics.
Risks of Escalation
The respected International Institute for Strategic Studies warned that Moscow and Tehran will see more “aggressive” uses of proxies as a “legitimate extension” of wars in Ukraine and Iran. This has led to warnings that a “high-profile or mass-casualty attack” could risk a huge escalation between some of the biggest global military powers.
Tom Field, research fellow for strategy and national security, said: “Amateurs recruited to carry out physical attacks on locations and people are often less effective and more reckless than trained intelligence professionals. This risks escalation if a proxy accidentally conducts a high-profile or mass-casualty attack. The use of gig-economy intelligence operatives has accelerated, causing a potentially irreversible shift from the professional to the amateur. Although many of these proxies are disrupted, some of their attacks have resulted in deaths and serious damage to property. This ‘fire and forget’ attack methodology has become the hostile intelligence officer’s equivalent of a cheap kamikaze drone.”
Botched Operations and Proxy Tactics
A teenager hired by the Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right – which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – killed the wrong person in a botched operation. Atilla Azimov had been hired by the Foxtrot Network gang in Sweden, but mistakenly killed 20-year-old Murad Abdelkader – a student on his way back from a shift at McDonald’s.
Mr Field added: “At a time when both Iran and Russia are engaged in conflicts with the West, it is almost certain that both countries would view the more aggressive use of these proxies in Europe as a legitimate extension of these conflicts. Although amateur proxies are often easier for authorities to identify and disrupt, they can be used at a scale that strains the finite resources of intelligence and law-enforcement agencies.”
Russian Operations in the UK
Fears are intensifying that Russia could ramp up operations in the UK after British drones were used by Ukrainian forces in strikes. It follows a Russian campaign to target properties linked to former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer. Russian operatives ran their sabotage and provocation campaign remotely through social media and the messaging app Telegram, creating fake online far-Right and Muslim groups, which were used to organise acts of vandalism in the UK and stir up division and fear.
Accounts based in Russia posted lies about the motive for the arson attacks targeting Sir Keir, which were spread by figures such as far-Right anti-Islam activist Tommy Robinson. Ukrainian national Roman Lavrynovych, and Ukrainian-born Romanian national Stanislav Carpiuc, 27, have now been convicted at the Old Bailey of conspiring to target property and a car connected to the UK prime minister. A third man, Petro Pochynok, 35, was found not guilty of conspiracy to commit arson.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences, RUSI, said: “The Russians essentially view Ukraine as a proxy and consider Russia ‘at war’ with NATO already – hence the sabotage and disruption campaign under way across Europe. No doubt Moscow will consider these current attacks as reinforcing their arguments, but it is complementary to what they already believe. In terms of a potential Russian response, they could look upon any production facilities as targets for sabotage and the supply chains as viable for disruption. This is activity they already seem to be conducting elsewhere in Europe, and we should not lose sight of the fact the Russians have already recruited people to conduct attacks in the UK. The UK Government and companies involved should be ensuring they have decent security and protection against physical or cyber interference, and think about threats to their personnel and transportation. Russia is still deterred from a direct attack on Europe, though it will continue to test NATO air defences and response times, as well as test UK readiness and reactions around our airspace and territorial waters. Their rhetoric is intended to make the UK pause and consider the risks of ‘escalation’, but the Russians can hardly complain given their continued and escalating use of ballistic and cruise missiles against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and urban centres.”
