At least eight flights were confirmed to have been targeted with bomb threats on Thursday, forcing emergency landings, searches, military escorts and diversions. Police and intelligence services are working to determine where the threats originated, what is behind them and whether any pose a genuine danger.
While the threats have so far not been found to be credible, there is major concern that these hugely disruptive alerts may be a precursor to a very real attack. The incidents come amid heightened global tensions linked to the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Possible motives behind the alerts
It is very possible these are the work of malevolent actors or high-stakes pranksters prepared to spark havoc among global airlines, perhaps bearing a grudge of some kind. Another possibility is that someone is testing the response of security services, creating a ‘boy who cried wolf’ scenario where countries become over-used to such threats.
This has to be avoided, as bomb scares and flight diversions can run into the hundreds of millions of pounds and have a corrosive knock-on effect on economies. The timing could also be exactly what some already suspect, thus far without proof, that the bomb scares are part of a state-backed campaign to foment havoc globally.
Hybrid warfare and state tensions
We are living in an intense period of escalating hybrid warfare as hostile countries such as Russia and Iran poke at the west to test the resolve of governments. This type of warfare falls below the threshold for war but creeps into the minds of civilians and officials as it increasingly impedes on daily life.
Western countries have imposed sanctions on both Russia and Iran, both declared enemies of many western countries including the UK. This is because of the UK’s support for Ukraine in fighting Russia’s invasion and the perception that the UK has supported the US in its campaign against Iran.
Financial impact and next steps
Despite the UK not being involved directly or officially in military offensives against either, merely declaring a defensive posture, the nuance is lost on both hostile regimes. In the psyche of both Russia and Iran, these hybrid gestures may be seen as exacting financial cost from foreign countries such as the UK, and this cost is considerable.
Diverting flights, making emergency landings and the ensuing investigations could cost hundreds of millions of pounds and boost insurance premiums. We do not know as yet who or what is behind these worrying flight bomb scares, but they are more serious than mere pranks and could result in serious trial convictions if the perpetrators are caught. Whether they are state sponsored or the work of pranksters who have under-estimated their seriousness, they feed into a period of increasingly serious tensions across the world.
