Jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the war on Iran, raising fears of widespread disruption to air travel. While a complete global fuel shortage is unlikely, experts warn that prolonged conflict could lead to extreme price hikes and significant flight cancellations.
According to Richard Green, professor of sustainable energy business at Imperial College London, the world uses about 100 million barrels of oil daily, with roughly 15 million passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, alternative pipelines and increased production elsewhere could mitigate the impact, reducing the actual shortfall to 5-10 million barrels per day.
Already, airlines are feeling the strain. Lufthansa has cut 20,000 flights, Spirit Airlines has gone bust, and Virgin Atlantic has warned of fare increases. IAG, owner of British Airways, is also adjusting prices. EasyJet has introduced a 'book with confidence' policy, guaranteeing no post-booking price rises, but this is only possible because it has hedged 70% of its fuel needs until September.
Travel industry executives are bracing for volatility. A poll by Globetrender founder Jenny Southan found that 49% expect week-to-week price fluctuations. Travellers are delaying bookings, and smaller routes are likely to face cancellations first.
The crisis could accelerate the transition to sustainable aviation fuel, but for now, holidaymakers face uncertainty. Analysts warn that if the war continues until the end of June, all fuel stockpiles could be depleted, leaving prices to skyrocket.
