Two million airline seats have been removed from global schedules this month as carriers grapple with soaring jet fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows about 13,000 fewer flights will operate in May, representing less than 2% of global capacity. While only 111 flights have been cut from London Heathrow, fears persist that summer cancellations could follow if fuel supply disruptions continue.
Turkish Airlines and Lufthansa have made the largest cuts, with Lufthansa's CityLine subsidiary axing 20,000 short-haul flights. The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the US-Israel attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, most UK-based short-haul airlines, including EasyJet and Wizz Air, are well hedged and have pledged to operate full summer schedules.
The industry reports no current shortages, given six weeks' supply visibility. Yet international agencies warn Europe could face jet fuel shortages if the Middle East war persists. Goldman Sachs analysts note the UK is most exposed as Europe's largest net importer of jet fuel, with low inventories and reduced domestic refining capacity. They warn stocks could fall to "critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures."
The UK government has announced contingency measures to avoid last-minute disruption for holidaymakers. These include relaxing "use-it-or-lose-it" slot rules, allowing airlines to cancel poorly sold flights without losing future rights. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said there are no "immediate supply issues" but the government is "preparing now to give families long-term certainty." UK refineries have been asked to maximise jet fuel production, though ministers have resisted calls for tax cuts or looser environmental rules.
