At the Airlines for Europe summit in Brussels, three veteran airline bosses shared their views on how the ongoing Middle East conflict might affect flight prices and fuel supplies. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (Iata) and former British Airways chief, said current oil prices are not unprecedented and that demand is shifting rather than collapsing.
Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, described the crisis as “one of the smaller, more minor ones” compared with 9/11 or the Gulf War, and predicted a return to normal within four to five weeks if the conflict ends soon. He added that jet fuel supplies are secure for three to four months.
Kenton Jarvis, CEO of easyJet, was more cautious, noting that the UK imports 80 to 90 per cent of its jet fuel from the Gulf and that a four-month crisis could cause supply issues. He expects fares to rise but said low-cost carriers would not impose fuel surcharges directly; instead, prices would adjust via algorithms based on supply and demand.
Despite potential price increases, all three executives reported strong demand. Walsh noted that travel has remained resilient through the cost of living crisis, while Jarvis said planes are still full and near-term bookings are unchanged. Historically, demand dips for about six weeks before recovering, often stronger than before.
Jarvis also hinted at possible bargains for holidaymakers, as Europe becomes a safer destination while Gulf states remain on the Foreign Office no-go list. He confirmed that easyJet is working with tourism ministries and hotels to support demand through pricing and incentives.
