President Trump has singled out Canada for special treatment in his tariff war, imposing rates as high as 50% on a selection of Canadian products, including items previously protected by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. The US called it retaliation for Canadian trade practices, while Trump has also mused about annexing Canada as the 51st state, saying he would use "economic force" rather than military force to achieve that.
Political fallout in Canada
The tariffs have had a massive effect on Canadian domestic politics, benefiting the Liberal party and Prime Minister Mark Carney. The return of Trump upset an election last year that the Liberals had been set to lose. Once Trump began musing about annexation, the Liberals dumped Justin Trudeau, replaced him with Carney, and won decisively. Carney remains popular because Canadians see him as the right choice to deal with Trump.
Regional divisions exposed
Canada's response has been fragmented due to its regional economies. Ontario and Quebec, heavily dependent on manufacturing, have pursued confrontation, while western provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, reliant on oil exports, have preferred to appeal to shared interests. Most of the economic damage from the latest tariffs landed on Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia—jurisdictions that have taken stronger anti-Trump positions—while Alberta and Saskatchewan were relatively spared. This has created fissures the US could exploit.
Carney must consider domestic blowback from any retaliation, such as an export tax on oil, lest he further inflame existing regional tensions. But the nature of Trump's actions has made resistance the only plausible Canadian response: caving in to the US president is toxic for Canadian voters. Some provincial resistance is due to unpopular regional leaders seeing salvation in battling Trump. Carney has made some concessions since becoming prime minister, including scrapping a planned digital tax, but he dare only go so far.
Little choice but to get nastier
Trump has often complained that dealing with Canadians is unpleasant and nasty. According to journalist Matt Gurney, "He should expect us to get nastier still. Whether he knows it or not, he’s left us little choice."
