More than a month into the Iran war, Donald Trump has warned that the US will hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks, prompting a further rise in the global cost of oil. With shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz still paralysed, the disruption of energy exports is putting pressure on the aviation sector.
The global average jet fuel price has increased from $95.95 (£72.50) per barrel in February to $197 (£148.86) per barrel a month later. Airlines are passing on these costs to passengers through fare increases and fuel surcharges. Qantas, Air New Zealand, Thai Airways and Air France KLM have raised long-haul fares, while Cathay Pacific has increased its surcharge by £9.50 on short-haul flights and £37.95 on long haul.
Capacity cuts are also driving up prices. Virgin Atlantic has axed its Heathrow to Riyadh service, and more than 1.7 million scheduled seats to Gulf airports were removed in March. Virgin is also reducing frequency on some routes to New York and Miami. EasyJet and Ryanair have warned that fares could rise further if the conflict continues.
However, there are still some bargains to be found. One-way, no-frills fares below £100 are available on routes between the UK and Mediterranean destinations this summer, including Croatia and Ibiza. Airlines are also moving capacity to alternative routes, such as Virgin Atlantic increasing flights to Montego Bay, Bangalore, Mumbai and Las Vegas.
Package holidays offer financial protection if flights are cancelled. Travellers can also look at less popular routes, such as Bologna instead of Venice, and track prices using comparison sites like Skyscanner and Google Flights.
