The 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada and Mexico is set to take place in conditions that could be unsafe for players and fans, with researchers warning of a “real risk” of heat-related problems. The National Weather Service’s seasonal outlook indicates that every part of the US will experience temperatures above the historical average in June and July, just as 48 men’s national teams arrive for the tournament.
An analysis by the Guardian has examined the meteorological conditions players could face, using the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) measure, which accounts for humidity, radiant heat and wind as well as air temperature. FIFA’s rules state that if WBGT reaches 32C before a match, consideration should be given to suspending it, while the global players’ union Fifpro argues the threshold should be lower, at 28C.
Research published earlier this year in the journal Temperature found that in 31 of 57 matches at last summer’s Club World Cup, the mean WBGT was above 28C, and that higher readings were linked to reduced distances covered by players. Data from World Weather Attribution (WWA) suggests 26 matches at the World Cup will be played at or above 26C WBGT, the threshold at which Fifpro argues cooling breaks should be used, and that there is a one-in-four chance a game is played in WBGT of 30C. Compared with the 1994 World Cup, when the US was the sole host, the number of matches expected to exceed 26C has risen by 52%, while at 28C it has grown by 75%.
“If there is an anomaly above the mean temperature, it will be conservative,” said Theodore Keeping, a research associate at Imperial College London and lead researcher on the WWA data. Joyce Kimutai, also of Imperial and WWA, noted that “around half of human-caused climate change has occurred since the World Cup was last hosted in North America”. She added that while organisers had attempted to reduce the risk by scheduling some games in high-risk, uncooled locations such as Miami and Kansas City later in the day, “there’s a very real risk that we’ll be faced with games taking place in conditions that are unsafe for players and fans”.
