Up to 70 of Britain's 700 shopping centres could be demolished after the pandemic worsened the decline of ageing malls already hit by online shopping and over-expansion of retail space. Many more centres built in the 1970s and 1980s will be at least partly redeveloped into homes, offices or other uses as the urban landscape is reshaped by changes in living and working habits accelerated by the pandemic.
At least 30 shopping centres in the UK are now at least half empty, including five with more than 80% of shops vacant, according to analysis by the Local Data Company. A further 34 have between 40% and 50% of their shops vacant. The analysis covers centres in England, Scotland and Wales with at least 10 shops, excluding outdoor retail parks.
“There’s no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated many of the challenges we were seeing across the physical retail environment, with shopping centres having been particularly exposed to categories in decline, such as fashion and casual dining,” said Lucy Stainton, commercial director at LDC. She noted that the indoor nature of most schemes and their lack of essential retail, such as food or hardware, put them at a disadvantage, increasing vacancies.
Stephen Springham, head of retail research at Knight Frank, estimates about 10% of shopping centres are no longer viable and a further 20% to 30% – about 200 – need significant overhaul, with shops retained but parts converted to homes, offices or other uses. Major chains including Debenhams, Topshop and Thornton’s have disappeared from high streets, while others like Marks & Spencer, John Lewis and House of Fraser have trimmed their store estates.
Centres already set for redevelopment include Nottingham’s Broadmarsh, where demolition starts this month, Stockton’s Castlegate, the Riverside centre in Shrewsbury, the Chilterns centre in High Wycombe, and Nicholsons in Maidenhead. Work has begun to knock down south London’s Elephant & Castle centre. Some local authorities are considering razing centres to build parks.
Financing changes may prove difficult for local authorities, some of which have already lost money buying shopping centres whose value plummeted. Demolition also raises sustainability concerns, as repurposing existing buildings may be preferable to new construction. Stainton noted opportunities for flexible offices, community spaces, or independent retailers, but cautioned that repurposing is complex and may not provide the same income from business rates or rent.
