Greggs, the popular bakery chain known for its sausage rolls and steak bakes, may see its summer sales hampered by the UK's ongoing heatwaves, according to an investment expert. Andrew Wade, an analyst at Wall Street investment bank Jefferies, warned that soaring temperatures could deter customers from purchasing some of the chain's top-selling hot menu items.
Impact of Hot Weather on Sales
Wade noted that Greggs' management remains confident about half-year profits, but acknowledged that "hot weather will not be helping." He pointed to last July, when the bakery chain was forced to downgrade its profit expectations due to similar weather conditions. While a profit warning this year is unlikely, Wade said the chances of a strong summer for Greggs are "fading."
In June, Greggs closed several shops across the South East and Midlands due to high temperatures. This move highlighted the operational challenges posed by extreme heat, which can affect both customer footfall and employee comfort.
Broader Retail Trends
New figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) show that the wider high street also struggled in June amid the heatwave. While total sales including online increased, in-store non-food sales fell by 1.1% year-on-year, below the 12-month average growth of 0.1%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson commented: "Retail sales maintained momentum despite June’s heatwave. While in-store sales were stifled by soaring temperatures, the proportion of sales online was the highest of 2026, bolstered by well-timed promotions. Electric fans and paddling pools performed well, as people looked to cool off, while the lure of the sunshine meant that gaming and big ticket sales struggled."
Price Comparisons
Jefferies' "Sandwich Price Tracker" revealed that sandwich prices across the industry have remained unchanged since April. Greggs, which raised its prices at the turn of the year along with some competitors, still offers competitive pricing. According to the analysis, Greggs is 12% more expensive than supermarkets, but cheaper than M&S (+19%), Pret (+40%), and Boots (+42%).
As the UK braces for more hot weather, Greggs and other retailers may need to adapt their strategies to mitigate the impact on sales. The coming weeks will be crucial for the bakery chain as it prepares to publish its interim results later this month.
