Manchester City have been found guilty of 114 of their 115 Premier League charges, prompting widespread speculation about the potential consequences. The Premier League released its findings on Tuesday, confirming City were culpable on all but one charge. City responded with a strongly defensive statement.
Demands for Title Stripping
In the meantime, there have been calls to demote City, with former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn suggesting the league should consider stripping City of the titles they won between 2009 and 2018, the period covered by the charges. Meanwhile, Manchester United legend Roy Keane said: "If I was a player, I'd be 100% sticking those medals in the bin. Of course you would, it's cheating."
Should this happen, it would trigger a significant reckoning. Erasing City's results from those campaigns wouldn't merely crown new champions in 2011/12, 2013/14 and 2017/18 - it would also affect Champions League qualification and Premier League survival for numerous clubs. While it might seem impossible to reverse the course of events, we have examined the nine seasons in question to determine who has been most disadvantaged by City's results during that period.
Season-by-Season Impact
In 2009/10, City's results don't change dramatically, apart from handing Everton European football and securing Burnley's survival. West Ham would leap above Wigan, and Blackburn would climb past Birmingham in the less significant placings. Hull City arguably endure the most agonising consequence. They wouldn't have stayed up even with City dropped to 20th and would forfeit the four points they claimed against the side, one of only two victories they managed after New Year.
Blackpool emerge as the major beneficiaries in 2010/11. They collected zero points from City and went down behind Wolves and Birmingham, both of whom managed to extract something from their clashes. The alternative table excluding City's results would see Birmingham relegated by a solitary goal on goal difference, rather than the single point which condemned them in reality. There's also a Champions League play-off position for Spurs and a Europa League place for Liverpool, while Aston Villa and Sunderland both drop several spots in the mid-table scrap.
Removing City's results from the 2011/12 campaign creates a considerably less thrilling final day. In this scenario, the title has been settled long ago, while QPR and Bolton have both already secured safety. The most intriguing alteration occurs in the Champions League positions, with Spurs leapfrogging Arsenal to claim a distant second behind Manchester United. Both would reach Europe's premier competition, with Newcastle the ones denied by Chelsea's Champions League final triumph over Bayern Munich.
Everton consistently claimed points from City during Roberto Mancini's tenure, though dropping those wouldn't have significantly damaged their standing. The 2012/13 campaign proves an exception, with City's demotion enabling Liverpool to edge past their rivals on goal difference to secure a Europa League berth. Above them, Spurs would secure Champions League football with second-placed City no longer a consideration. Regarding the drop zone, 18th-placed Wigan would climb a position, enabling them to toast survival alongside their FA Cup triumph at City's expense.
The 2013/14 campaign marks the second time in this timeframe where we'd see a different champion, in this instance Liverpool. It would also see Arsenal rather than Chelsea as their nearest challengers, with the Blues forfeiting their two victories over City, while Tim Sherwood's Spurs are promoted to the Champions League positions. At the bottom end, Norwich would stay up, though only narrowly, as they forfeit the point from their stalemate against Manuel Pellegrini's outfit. Sunderland, who frequently claimed points from City during this period, drop several places to 16th but still avoid the drop.
Further Seasons and Key Conclusions
In 2014/15, it's another Champions League qualification for Spurs, who rise from fifth to fourth. There's also a European play-off position for Swansea, who advance one place to seventh. At the foot of the table, it's Hull who receive a lifeline. Indeed, they finish five points clear of Burnley after the Clarets' four points against City are wiped out.
The 2015/16 campaign ranks amongst the ones influenced the least by City's results. Leicester's remarkable title triumph still occurs without their four points against Pellegrini's men, while Arsenal and Spurs remain next in the queue. There are only two particularly noteworthy alterations. Louis van Gaal's Manchester United would sneak into the Champions League positions, while Rafa Benitez and Newcastle would avoid relegation, with City relegated to bottom spot.
Arsenal will regard themselves unfortunate to have missed out on Champions League qualification in reality. In 2016/17, though, Arsene Wenger's squad rise above City and also above a Liverpool team who claimed points off Pep Guardiola's side in the Catalan's debut year in command. For the second occasion, Hull City receive a lifeline with only 34 points accumulated. Perhaps more shockingly, though, Bournemouth advance a couple of positions and secure a campaign in Europe despite collecting just 46 points from their 38 matches.
Predictably for a campaign where City amassed 100 points, there isn't a substantial amount of variation in 2017/18. Runners-up Manchester United ascend to first position, while Antonio Conte's Chelsea rise into the fourth Champions League slot. There would also be a European place for Everton, despite them forfeiting the point they earned at the Etihad Stadium in August. At the lower end of the table, Swansea would accompany Huddersfield in surviving with only 28 goals netted, ahead of Stoke on goal difference.
The headline alterations pertain to those three City titles. The alternative tables would yield two more for Manchester United - one under Sir Alex Ferguson and one under Jose Mourinho - and one for Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool. At the lower end, Hull are the sole team who would not only avoid one but two relegations. However, the biggest losers from City's results are Tottenham, who would have four additional Champions League seasons to their name. Of course, this is an inexact science, given the multitude of variables. It's also worth noting that City consider the situation far from concluded, but it's still intriguing for fans to ponder what could have been.
