Oil prices fell and Asian stocks rose on Tuesday as markets bet that the US and Iran would resume negotiations before their fragile two-week ceasefire expires, even as Tehran remained uncommitted to attending fresh talks and both sides traded accusations of violating the truce. Brent crude slipped 0.4 per cent to $95.09 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.7 per cent to $88.07, pulling back after both benchmarks surged more than $5 a barrel in the previous session.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with up to 10 million barrels a day of crude still shut in, pushing up freight prices and insurance costs. The ceasefire is due to expire on Wednesday evening Washington time. US president Donald Trump said in an interview that JD Vance would travel to Islamabad to resume direct talks with Iranian representatives, though Tehran made no immediate commitment to attend.
Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the truce without a deal, claiming Iran was losing $500m a day. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, rejected the framing, writing on X: “We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.” A senior Iranian official later told Reuters Tehran might yet send delegates to talks in Islamabad.
South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.1 per cent to hit a fresh record high for the first time since the war began, while Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1.2 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.9 per cent. Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 1.7 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.1 per cent, while Australian shares slipped 0.3 per cent and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.2 per cent. On Wall Street on Monday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent and the Nasdaq snapped a 13-day winning streak.
The economic consequences of the disruption continued to spread. Kuwait declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products after the blockade prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf. Crude oil loadings from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu fell 17 per cent week on week. Despite the uncertainty, around a tenth of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter results, with nearly nine in 10 beating analyst expectations.
