Food prices in the UK are on course to be 50% higher in November than at the onset of the cost of living crisis in 2021, according to research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The think tank attributes the surge to climate and energy shocks, which have nearly quadrupled the rate of food price growth. The findings indicate that prices have risen in five years at roughly the same pace as they did over the previous two decades.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation charity, warned that such steep increases force low-income families to cut back on food. “When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it,” she said. The cost of living crisis, which many voters blame on political elites and big business, is likely to remain a key issue in 2026, experts suggest.
The ECIU report highlights that beef prices have risen 64% and olive oil has more than doubled, while pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate and eggs are at least 50% more expensive than five years ago. These increases reflect sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves in the UK and key import regions. The Bank of England has warned that food inflation could reach 7% by year-end due to higher energy, fertiliser and transport costs.
Household food bills have risen by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, the report adds. Recently, five climate-affected foods – butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee – have driven much of the continued pressure on food inflation. The ECIU also warns that inflation could become more extreme, with analysts pointing to the potential impact of conflict in the Middle East on oil and gas prices, and forecasts that 2027 could be the hottest year on record.
