Diesel prices have soared past £2 a litre in the UK, and an energy resources expert has warned that prices are likely to remain high for months. Ellen Fraser, Associate Partner and expert in Energy and Resources at the consultancy Baringer, spoke on BBC Radio 4’s Moneybox show as US President Donald Trump considers a total diesel export ban.
UK diesel stocks at 42 days
New research from Sky News analysis of various data sources suggested the UK only has 42 days’ worth of imports for emergency stocks of diesel in July 2026. Government data from last year shows that the US accounts for about a third of all UK diesel imports.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at the accountancy RSM, said there would be an “immediate effect” on the UK if a ban was imposed. He added that the main sectors to be hit would be road haulage, agriculture, construction and distribution.
Expert explains price pressures
Ms Fraser told listeners: “There are so many things going on here. So we’ve got the Strait of Hormuz which is taking out both crude oil but also refinery capacity. We’ve got what’s going on in Russia and that’s taken out refinery capacity particularly in the diesel markets which is behind some of the spike here.
“But for diesel and some of the products we’re also going into the winter months so people are stocking up before we go into winter. And in agriculture for example we’ve got all the farmers out in the fields harvesting. That’s just putting general pressure on refined products and a bit of a consumption peak and that’s causing the prices to nudge up a little bit as well.”
Show host Paul Lewis asked: “Filling up your car the average price of unleaded £1.74 a litre, diesel this morning I saw at over £2 breaking possibly the record. The RAC says prices likely to rise further. Do you agree?” Ms Fraser said: “I think that is likely based on the really tight demand-side market - so yes.”
Advice for heating oil users
Asked if people using heating fuel oil should buy now, Ms Fraser said: “It’s always really hard to give advice because the energy markets are incredibly tight at the moment and that means that they’re really volatile, so you get bounces up and you get bounces down.
“But when we’re looking at the oil markets currently the forward curves don’t suggest that they’re going to come off much over the winter period and we’re expecting those prices to stay high until at least April and May which is obviously far too late to fill the tanks. If I was in those shoes now I would probably lock in and fill up.”
Mr Lewis also asked about the Ofgem price cap rise on Wednesday, noting two forecasts that the cap will rise by 25% - an extra £400-odd a year. Ms Fraser said: “We haven’t got a solid prediction yet. Based on gas prices which have at least doubled during the period since the last price cap was set and since the beginning of this year, that’s creating a lot of upwards pressure specifically on the gas element of the domestic price for customers and remember the 25% you’ve quoted there is for a dual fuel customer who’s got electricity and gas. That’s not unrealistic - I think that’s a good approximation.”
Earlier this week, Trump said he would back Republican proposals to halt exports of diesel in order to ease prices ahead of mid-term elections in November. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said there was a review underway of whether a ban could work as American diesel prices reached record highs at over £4.87 a gallon.
Reports also suggested Iran’s IRGC has substantially escalated its targeting of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the past hours, launching anti-ship cruise missiles and drones while fast-attack boats engage tankers with guided rockets, machine guns and small arms. At least 3 vessels have been struck and a 4th has turned around, with a second source putting the number struck last night at up to 6, the Hormuz Letter said.
