Scottish Ministers are being urged to set a new target for 30 gigawatts (GW) of onshore wind capacity by 2040, a move that research suggests could generate more than £4 billion for the country's economy and support thousands of jobs.
New analysis by Biggar Economics, carried out for the Scottish Onshore Wind Developers Forum, found that targeting 30GW of onshore wind power by 2040 could generate £4.2 billion in gross value added (GVA) for Scotland.
The report also indicated that such a target would support an average of 6,100 more jobs between 2034 and 2040 in the development, construction and operation of new wind farms.
Concerns over low ambition beyond 2030
The call comes amid concerns about the "low ambition" for onshore wind beyond 2030. Scotland currently has about 10.7GW of onshore wind capacity.
The report stresses that "Scotland has a track record of delivering onshore wind" and adds that recent analysis found the 30GW target would "result in system cost savings to the UK consumer".
Rosie Vetter, chair of the Scottish Onshore Wind Developers Forum, said the sector had been "one of the country's great economic success stories delivering clean power at scale". She added that "the current low ambition after 2030 risks preventing the deployment of one of the quickest and cheapest renewable technologies that can support the UK's energy security".
Pipeline could reach 20GW by around 2032
The report notes Scotland has a "healthy pipeline of projects under construction and in development" and says installed capacity for onshore wind power could reach 20GW by "around 2032".
However, it adds that there is "no ambition for Scotland beyond this" and states that the UK Government's Clean Power 2030 action plan "assumes an effective cap on Scottish onshore wind at 21.2GW".
Ms Vetter said they had been "encouraged" by comments from Scottish energy minister Stephen Gethins that 20GW by 2030 for onshore wind "must be a milestone rather than an end point".
Economic benefits and community payments
With the Scottish Government working on a "refreshed" energy strategy, Ms Vetter said: "Setting an ambition of at least 30GW by 2040 would send a powerful signal that Scotland intends to remain at the forefront of the clean energy transition by maximising its renewable potential.
"Biggar's new research further bolsters this argument by setting out the clear economic benefits, job creation and increased flow of community benefit and business rates that could be delivered if we meet this ambition."
The report found that community benefit payments from wind farms could amount to some £44 million annually by 2040 if the 30GW target was reached, while income from business rates could be double that at £88 million.
Simon Cleary, energy transition director at Biggar Economics, said: "Scotland has a natural advantage in delivering low-cost onshore wind for the UK. Capping this sector after 2030 would put thousands of jobs at risk.
"Setting and achieving a target of 30GW of onshore wind in Scotland by 2040 would enable the economy to build on this natural advantage and unlock an additional £4.2 billion GVA in Scotland.
"This would deliver significant benefits for the supply chain, energy consumers and the communities that host these projects."
Mr Gethins said: "Onshore wind is one of the cheapest and quickest to deploy sources of electricity and it will remain central to Scotland's energy future well beyond 2030."
He added: "Deployment after 2030 will be shaped by UK Government decisions, including the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan, grid connections and price support mechanisms.
"We are pressing the UK Government to make full use of Scotland's vast renewable resources and will continue to work closely with the sector as those decisions are taken."
