The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies have banked more than $30m every hour in unearned profit during the first month of the US-Israeli war in Iran, according to exclusive analysis for the Guardian. Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and ExxonMobil are among the biggest beneficiaries of the bonanza, meaning key opponents of climate action continue to prosper.
The conflict pushed the price of oil to an average of $100 a barrel in March, leading to estimated windfall war profits for the month of $23bn for the companies. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to pre-war levels and the companies will make $234bn by the end of the year if the oil price continues to average $100. The analysis uses data from Rystad Energy, analysed by Global Witness.
The excess profits come from the pockets of ordinary people as they pay high prices to fill up their vehicles and power their homes, as well as from businesses incurring higher energy bills. Dozens of countries have cut fuel taxes to help struggling consumers, meaning those nations, including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil and Zambia, are raising less money for public services.
Pressure is growing for windfall taxes on the war profits of oil and gas companies, with the European Commission considering a request from the finance ministers of Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria to “send a clear message that those who profit from the consequences of war must do their part to ease the burden on the general public”. The EU’s fossil fuel bill has risen by €22bn since the start of the Iran war.
Aramco is by far the biggest winner, estimated to make a war profit of $25.5bn in 2026 if the oil price averages $100. Three Russian companies – Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil – stand to make an estimated $23.9bn in Iran-related war profits by the end of the year. ExxonMobil will take in $11bn in unearned war profits in 2026, while Shell will get a $6.8bn boost. Chevron is on track to make windfall profits of $9.2bn.
The impact of the Iran war is likely to be long lasting, with the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, describing it as the biggest shock ever to the global energy market. The UN’s climate chief, Simon Stiell, warned: “Fossil fuel dependency is ripping away national security and sovereignty, and replacing it with subservience and rising costs.”
