Price shocks resulting from the Iran war are fueling a surge in rooftop solar sales across energy-hungry Asia, as panicked consumers seek to offset rising fuel costs. This trend is likely to benefit China, the world's largest provider of solar technology.
Philippines Leads Solar Adoption Amid Energy Crisis
In the Philippines, which is currently in a national energy emergency, a survey of 20 local solar companies revealed a 70% increase in weekly installations and a six-fold jump in customer inquiries since the conflict began. Brenda Valerio of the nonprofit New Energy Nexus, which conducted the survey, stated, “This crisis is a driving force for solar. People want solar and people want solar now.”
The Philippines heavily relies on Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas, making it one of the most impacted Southeast Asian nations by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Local airlines are considering fuel rationing, public transport workers are receiving cash handouts, and gas and diesel prices have surged. To conserve energy, government offices have shifted to a four-day work week and are required to keep air conditioning no lower than 24 degrees Celsius (75 degrees Fahrenheit).
According to the climate nonprofit 350.org, oil and gas price spikes during the first 60 days of the Iran war cost Filipino consumers, businesses, and public institutions over $600 million. Jaime Quemado, a Manila resident who recently purchased a rooftop solar system, said, “When we got our energy bill after the Iran war broke out, we were very shocked. It was a significant increase.” He also cited concerns about potential power outages as a reason for seeking alternative energy sources like solar, which is abundant in the Philippines.
Customer interest in rooftop solar jumped from around 115 inquiries in February, before the war started on February 28, to more than 450 by mid-April, according to the New Energy Nexus survey. Valerio urged solar groups to “ride this wave and take advantage of this momentum.”
On two extremely hot days in Manila, installers from EcoSolutions worked to set up an 18-kilowatt rooftop solar system, which included 28 panels from major Chinese manufacturer LONGi and four batteries from Suzhou-based Dyness. EcoSolutions president Richmond Reyes noted that the war has “helped the solar industry really get its footing.” Joel Remegio of the Association of Solar Installers of the Philippines described the energy crisis as a “game changer” for the nation's nascent solar industry.
Marissa Cerezo of the Department of Energy’s Renewable Energy Management Bureau emphasized that clean technology like rooftop solar is quickly scalable because it is “accessible to all of us,” giving consumers the power to choose them.
Global Solar Interest Rises
Solar energy is gaining traction across Southeast Asia. Indonesia has set an ambitious target to install 100 gigawatts of rooftop solar by 2034, a significant leap from its current 1.3 gigawatts. Vietnam aims to install rooftop solar on at least 10% of public offices and homes nationwide by 2030. Thailand is considering new policies to increase the amount of surplus energy the national grid can buy from rooftop solar users, providing them with greater financial benefits.
Yu Sun Chin of the research group Zero Carbon Analytics stated that the energy crisis is incentivizing these decisions, noting, “It totally makes sense for policymakers to take another look at rooftop solar and see ways that they can save costs.”
Online marketplaces and utility companies in the U.S. and across Europe have also recorded jumps in solar sales and inquiries since the Iran war began. Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University, said, “Solar is definitely one of the easiest things people can do” to cut monthly electricity bills. He added that the availability and affordability of rooftop solar make it the easiest clean technology solution compared to the higher expense of buying an electric vehicle or installing a heat pump.
China Poised to Supply Solar Demand
Energy think tank Ember reported that China exported 68 gigawatts worth of clean technology products in March, equivalent to Spain’s entire solar capacity and double its February output. The Iran war is accelerating the world’s energy transition, Ember found. Exports to Africa reached 10 gigawatts, a 176% jump from February, with rapid growth in Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Exports to other Asian nations doubled to 39 gigawatts, including major increases to India, Malaysia, and Laos.
Ramnath Iyer of the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said the speed of the transition depends on whether world leaders “decide to go ahead with electrification and move away from fossil fuels.” Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub, noted that Chinese companies had an oversupply of solar panels and other equipment before the war, putting them in a prime position to capitalize on current demand. “When it comes to the clean tech sector, China at this point in time is already so far ahead,” Li said. “The current situation in Iran will help China cement its dominance.”
