The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that Europe could exhaust its jet fuel reserves within approximately six weeks, raising the alarming prospect of widespread flight cancellations and severe economic disruption. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol delivered this sobering assessment on Thursday, highlighting the escalating global energy crisis triggered by the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Imminent Threat to Air Travel
Speaking to the Associated Press from his Paris office, Birol emphasised that if oil supplies remain obstructed through the Strait of Hormuz, flight cancellations could begin "soon." He painted a dire picture of the situation, stating, "I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel." This warning comes as the peak summer travel season approaches, threatening the tourism-dependent economies across the European Union.
Global Economic Repercussions
Birol described the current crisis as "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced," with far-reaching implications for the global economy. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil, gas, and other essential supplies, has created what he termed a "dire strait." He warned, "The longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world." The impact is expected to manifest in higher petrol prices, increased gas costs, and elevated electricity prices worldwide, with some regions bearing a heavier burden than others.
Asian Nations on the Front Line
The IEA chief identified Asian countries as the immediate frontline in this energy crisis, due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy imports. He specifically named Japan, Korea, India, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as nations that will be hit hardest initially. "Then it will come to Europe and the Americas," Birol added, underscoring the cascading nature of the supply disruption.
Market Reactions and Industry Concerns
The financial markets have already reacted to the growing uncertainty, with airlines leading stock market declines in London on Monday as fears over jet fuel supply and cost intensify. Airport Council International Europe has echoed the IEA's concerns, warning that European airports could face jet fuel shortages within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. In a letter to the European Commission, the group highlighted that the approaching summer peak season exacerbates the risk, as air travel sustains the tourism ecosystem crucial to many EU economies.
Airlines Brace for Impact
Several airlines have voiced similar apprehensions, with Ryanair acknowledging that it cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at certain airports if the Strait of Hormuz closure persists into May or June. The continued blockade by US President Donald Trump's administration has sparked deepening concerns over long-term disruptions to global fuel flows, placing immense pressure on the aviation industry and broader economic stability.
As the crisis unfolds, the IEA's warning serves as a urgent call to address the energy supply chain vulnerabilities, with the potential for significant repercussions on travel, trade, and inflation across continents.
