The fertility rate in England and Wales has dropped to a historic low of 1.41 children per woman in 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks the third consecutive annual decline and the lowest level since comparable records began in 1938. The rate in Scotland fell even further to 1.25, also a record low, with the number of live births dropping to 45,763—the fewest since 1855.
Despite a 0.6% increase in live births last year, the fertility rate fell because the adult population grew faster than the number of births. The ONS noted that such a scenario—rising births alongside falling fertility—has occurred only six times since 1938, four of which have been since 2011. For a population to remain stable without migration, a fertility rate of about 2.1 is required.
Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said: “Fertility rates in England and Wales have been in overall decline since 2010. The total number of births increased last year, for the first time since 2021; but this was offset by population growth. As a result, fertility rates fell overall, and are now at the lowest rates on record.”
The average age of mothers rose to 31 and fathers to 33.9 in 2024, continuing a 50-year upward trend. The fertility rate for women aged 25–29 saw the steepest decline, while rates increased for mothers aged 30–39 and for fathers over 35. Notably, births to fathers over 60 rose by 14%. Regional disparities persisted: the West Midlands and London saw slight increases in fertility rates, while most other regions declined. Luton had the highest rate at 2.0, while the City of London recorded the lowest at 0.32.
Bernice Kuang, a demography researcher at the University of Southampton, suggested the decline may be temporary, driven by people postponing childbirth. Her research indicates that the proportion of people ending their childbearing years without children has not risen sharply, and the UK still largely follows a “two-child norm.” She added: “We might see fertility continue to decline and then rebound once the age at first birth stops rising.”
