Forecasters have warned that a supercharged El Niño could develop by November 2026, with a 15% chance of becoming a 'super El Niño' that would push global temperatures to record highs. The UK could experience extreme heat as a result, with 2027 likely to be the hottest year on record.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a cool La Niña phase, but there is a 62% chance of a switch to El Niño between June and August. If it strengthens, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific could reach at least 2°C above normal, matching the intensity of the 2015–2016 super El Niño.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather stated that a strong El Niño would push up 2026 and particularly 2027 global temperatures, making 2027 'increasingly likely to be a record warm year'. The hottest year on record is currently 2024, which coincided with an El Niño event and saw global average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
El Niño events typically bring heavier winter rains to California, deeper droughts to Australia, and increased wildfire risk in Southeast Asia. For the UK, a super El Niño could mean record-breaking heatwaves and altered weather patterns, though exact impacts remain uncertain.
Experts also warn that by 2060, El Niño could occur every two to five years, leading to 'climate whiplash' with alternating years of drought and flooding worldwide.
