A decade after the UK voted to leave the European Union, economists agree that the decision has inflicted lasting damage on the economy, leaving households and businesses worse off. While the immediate recession predicted by some did not materialise, long-term forecasts of reduced growth, trade friction, and lower incomes have proven accurate.
According to analysis by Nick Bloom of Stanford University and others, UK GDP per head is now between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates a 4% hit to national income over 15 years. The pound has never recovered its pre-referendum level, trading at $1.34 and €1.15 in 2025, down from nearly $1.50 and €1.31.
Trade barriers erected since the end of the transition period in December 2020 have slowed goods exports relative to other G7 nations, though services have fared better. Exporters face increased red tape and border delays, while the weaker pound has raised import costs, fuelling inflation and squeezing household finances.
Charlie Bean, former Bank of England deputy governor, criticised the Treasury's initial 'project fear' messaging but noted that the long-run assessment was broadly correct: 'We're poorer than we otherwise would have been.' The UK's economic performance has diverged sharply from 33 other advanced economies since 2016, with no clear alternative explanation for the gap.
