Trainline has reported that the ongoing US standoff with Iran is negatively impacting its revenues, as rail ticket sales to foreign visitors to Europe have been affected. The UK-based international ticketing agent anticipates that revenues will remain flat or decline over the coming year, citing the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe.
Impact of Geopolitical Tensions
Airlines have observed later bookings, with considerable consumer uncertainty surrounding summer travel plans. The US-Israel conflict with Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and subsequent blockades have raised concerns about global jet fuel supply, leading carriers to begin cancelling thousands of flights. These developments have created a ripple effect on rail bookings, as fewer international visitors are travelling to Europe.
Financial Performance and Outlook
Trainline's shares fell following its earnings guidance, as Middle East tensions added to prior warnings of headwinds, including UK ticketing policy. The British government has frozen rail fares and indicated plans to establish its own ticketing website under the proposed Great British Railways. Additionally, the expansion of contactless payments around London and other cities is expected to further erode Trainline's market share.
Despite these challenges, the group reported full-year operating profits up 43% to £122 million, with revenue increasing by 2% to £453 million for the 2025-26 period. However, Trainline now expects sales of just £440 million to £455 million in 2026-27, reflecting a cautious outlook.
Strategic Initiatives and Market Position
Trainline remains Europe's most downloaded rail app and is targeting further growth in Italy and France, where increased competition among operators on long-distance routes is expanding the ticketing market. Jody Ford, the outgoing chief executive of Trainline, stated: "It has been a year of strong delivery with record net ticket sales and revenue, and continued double-digit growth in profitability." He added: "Ahead of the creation of GBR online retail in the UK, we are working closely with government to deliver on its commitment to a fair and open regulatory framework. We strongly welcome the recent decision to open delay repay to independent retailers, our customers’ No 1 ask."
Trainline shares dropped by approximately 8% in early trading but recovered to close about 1% lower.
