Large areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea are currently 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than usual, adding to mounting evidence that a Super El Nino is imminent. Satellite images reveal an ongoing marine heatwave off the northern and western coasts of France, the southern coast of Spain, and in the sea off Monaco. The waters off the coast of Dover, Eastbourne, and Brighton are also significantly warmer than usual, with areas of dark red indicating soaring temperatures.
The image is based on recorded sea surface temperatures on 30 May, provided by the Copernicus Marine Service. It comes amid warnings that a 'Super El Nino' – marked by sustained warm temperatures across the Pacific Ocean – is inching closer. Experts from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently predicted there is an 80 per cent likelihood of the weather phenomenon occurring during June–August 2026. Current signs point to this year being one of the strongest El Nino patterns ever recorded. It could bring extreme heat 'nearly everywhere', with the potential for global average temperatures to rise by as much as 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) this summer.
What is a Super El Nino?
El Nino years form part of a natural cycle known as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation and are marked by sustained warm temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. Where this ocean surface warming exceeds 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the event is often referred to as a 'super El Nino'. While each El Nino varies, the event typically brings increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. In contrast, there will be drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
Record-Breaking Temperatures Expected
Scientists say there is a strong chance 2026 will be the hottest year ever recorded. That could mean beating the record set in 2024, when global warming exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average for the first time. From late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific – the area used as a monitoring reference – was approaching El Nino thresholds, according to the WMO. These increasing surface temperatures are being fed by unusually warm subsurface water in the tropical Pacific, where temperatures are a whopping 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.
The world is on track for 'extraordinary extreme weather' later this year, scientists have warned, as global ocean temperatures indicate a record-breaking heat is likely. While its effects on the UK are yet to be determined, meteorologists say El Nino's intensity will likely be comparable to the 1997/98 event which saw global temperatures reach their highest on record. During its development, the UK experienced an exceptionally hot, sunny, and humid August characterised by heatwaves. The average maximum temperature at Heathrow in August 1997 was 25.8 degrees Celsius (78.4 degrees Fahrenheit), with a top temperature of 31.5 degrees Celsius (88.7 degrees Fahrenheit) reached. However, while the phenomenon typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the UK during summer months, it also increases the likelihood of colder winters.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: 'We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Nino, in 2023–24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024. The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.'
Yesterday, it emerged that the impending weather phenomenon could add hundreds to your grocery bill. 'We import two-fifths of our food from overseas,' Gareth Redmond-King, international lead at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said. 'Extreme conditions that are driven by climate change, turbocharged by El Nino, are a threat to crops we can't grow here. Things like bananas, rice, tea, coffee and lots of fresh fruit.' Food prices in the UK are already on track to be 50 per cent higher by November than they were five years ago, he added.
