The United Nations has warned of the imminent return of El Niño, a weather pattern that supercharges global temperatures and extreme weather, with an 80% chance of forming before September 2026. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts a 90% chance of its development before November, with most models indicating at least moderate strength, potentially strong.
This development raises concerns for UK food prices, as El Niño typically causes heavier rain in parts of South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, while bringing drier conditions to Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia. These disruptions could affect global crop yields and supply chains, impacting imports to the UK.
Gareth Redmond-King from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, a British thinktank, warned that the havoc El Niño will wreak, likely delivering another hottest year in 2027, will be devastating for many farmers. He noted that food supplies are already under strain from climate breakdown and restricted fertiliser flows due to the Iran war.
The WMO has rejected the term 'super El Niño' as unofficial, but scientists have previously warned that this could be the strongest this century. The most recent El Niño in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest on record, contributing to record-breaking global temperatures in 2024.
UN Secretary General António Guterres called for urgent climate action, stating that El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. He emphasised the need to end the addiction to fossil fuels and accelerate the shift to renewables to protect the most vulnerable.
