Scottish retail sales have declined for the second consecutive month, with economists attributing the downturn to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which continues to undermine consumer confidence. According to figures released by the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) and KPMG, total sales in Scotland fell by 1.2% in April compared to the same month last year, when they had risen by 4.5%. This performance is below the three-month average decrease of 0.9% and significantly below the 12-month average increase of 0.4%. When adjusted for inflation, the year-on-year decline stands at 2.2%.
Food sales hit hardest
Food sales experienced the most significant drop, plunging by 4.0% compared to April 2025. In contrast, non-food sales saw a modest increase of 1.0% on last year, though this is a sharp slowdown from the 6.3% growth recorded in April 2025. After adjusting for the impact of online sales, non-food sales in Scotland showed no change compared to the previous year, when they had grown by 8.7%.
Industry reactions
David Lonsdale, director of the SRC, described the slump as "less than surprising" due to the early timing of Easter this year and a fall in shopper footfall during the month. He elaborated: "However, this was a second successive monthly contraction as concern over the implications of the situation in the Middle East weakened consumer confidence and as households came to terms with higher outlays on water charges, council tax, and at the petrol pump. Worst affected was grocery sales which tumbled by 4%, also falling over the quarter as a whole. Indeed, food sales have grown by a paltry 0.1% on average over the past 12 months as shoppers sought out value by trading down to own-brand products and leaned into retailers' loyalty schemes and promotions."
Lonsdale noted that non-food items fared slightly better, with early signs of demand for televisions likely linked to upcoming major sporting events, including Scotland's participation in the World Cup finals and Glasgow's Commonwealth Games. However, travel-related purchases underwhelmed. He called on both the UK and Scottish governments to support retailers by cutting business rates and reducing red tape. "Global events such as the situation in the Middle East and higher commodity prices might be out of the government's hands, but costs imposed here at home are not," he said. "It's why the UK and Scottish governments should help retailers' efforts to keep down shop prices for households in the short, medium, and long term by working with us to reduce the statutory costs retailers and their suppliers face. This should begin with a reduction in food businesses' energy costs especially non-commodity charges, a more competitive business rate, and curbing or pausing any new regulations."
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail & leisure at KPMG, described the figures as "disappointing." She added: "Consumer confidence has been further dampened by rising prices due to the Iran conflict, with consumers cautious about potential ongoing effects. As a result, the retail sector is facing a challenging start to spring/summer, but there is hope that holiday demand and the World Cup still manage to unlock spending in the weeks and months ahead."
