New research presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul suggests that the rising tide of obesity in high-income countries, including Britain, may be levelling off. The global analysis, conducted by Imperial College London, examined over four decades of health data from 200 countries and territories, covering 1980 to 2024. It indicates that the obesity crisis could be tapering, and in some nations like France, Italy, and Portugal, even reversing.
Key Findings on Obesity Trends
Professor Majid Ezzati, lead researcher, challenged the widely accepted view of a global obesity epidemic, stating, 'When we take it all together, the results that we see... it's been just about flat… it has been completely flattened.' The data shows that for UK girls, obesity rates plateaued around the year 2000, and for boys slightly later but before 2005. For women and men, rates are still rising but at a slower pace.
However, experts caution against complacency. Dr Marie Spreckley from Cambridge University noted, 'For the UK, the findings suggest that obesity prevalence may be stabilising, but at a relatively high level compared with many other high-income countries. A plateau at high prevalence still represents a substantial burden for individuals, healthcare systems and society.'
Potential Causes and Implications
It remains uncertain whether weight loss jabs have contributed to this trend, or if it stems from better health awareness, especially among wealthier populations. Compared to Western European countries, the UK's obesity prevalence remains significantly higher.
Adult Weight Gain and Cancer Risk
Separate research involving 600,000 Swedish adults, weighed repeatedly over four decades, found that weight gain in adulthood raises cancer risk up to five-fold, even for those slim in their teens. The study from Lund University highlighted that avoiding sudden weight gain over a few years is crucial for keeping cancer risk low.
Specific Cancer Risks by Gender
Men who became obese before age 30 faced a five-times higher risk of liver cancer, doubled risk of pancreatic and kidney cancer, and a 58% increased risk of colon cancer. Women who developed obesity before 30 had a 4.5 times higher risk of endometrial cancer, 67% higher risk of pancreatic cancer, double the risk of kidney cancer, and a 76% higher risk of meningioma.
Associate Professor Anton Nilsson explained, 'Weight gain after age 30 was strongly associated with postmenopausal breast cancer, whereas weight gain prior to age 30 was less strongly so. In men, obesity-related cancers such as liver cancer were instead more strongly associated with weight gain prior to age 45.'
The findings underscore the importance of policies to prevent weight gain throughout adulthood to reduce cancer risk.
