Global heating consistent with current projections would cost the average Australian from generation Alpha $185,000 over their lifetime, according to new modelling by young economists at Deloitte. The report, released as the eldest of this cohort turn 16, highlights a stark intergenerational inequity, with the burden on Gen Alpha nearly ten times that borne by baby boomers and more than double the costs faced by Gen X.
The modelling estimates the lifetime cost for a millennial at about $130,000, while for Gen Z it rises to $165,000. These figures account for damage to worker productivity, infrastructure, property, health risks and healthcare costs, as well as impacts on tourism and agriculture from more frequent and extreme natural disasters.
Rhiannon Yetsenga, associate director at Deloitte Access Economics and co-author of the report, said the analysis underscores that climate action is a question of intergenerational equity. “For this generation, climate change is not a distant threat but an immediate, lived experience with severe consequences,” she said. “Many of these costs are already locked in because emissions linger in our atmosphere for 30 years.”
However, if decision-makers drive action to reach net zero by 2050, millennials, Gen Z and Gen Alpha could avoid costs of about $50,000, $70,000 and $80,000 respectively over their lives. The economists modelled two scenarios: “insecure youth prosperity” under current policies, and a “secure” scenario with aggressive decarbonisation.
The report advocates for a price on carbon as the most efficient emissions reduction mechanism, and argues that economic growth must be decoupled from emissions. Yetsenga stressed that taking action need not compromise growth, and highlighted opportunities in green industries such as green iron and critical minerals. “I wouldn’t want to send the message that we have to compromise because, done right, this could be an opportunity,” she said.
Ken Henry, former Treasury secretary, said the modelling demonstrates a “shifting of the intergenerational burden”, noting that past inaction has pushed costs onto younger Australians.
