Andy Burnham could be forced to ditch the triple lock to afford his radical plans for social care, according to reports. The Prime Minister has announced ambitious plans to revolutionise care provision, but the funding remains unclear.
Triple Lock Under Scrutiny
Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomics at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), told GB News: "The triple lock on pensions, that is very, very expensive, and will get more expensive as we age." Estimates from the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggest the state pension triple lock costs between £12billion and £12.6billion each year.
Funding the Changes
The specific means of funding the changes have yet to be outlined, with estimates putting the figure required at around £18 billion per year. Millard believes there is no way the Treasury could fund the changes within existing budgets, leaving tax rises or spending cuts as alternatives.
Burnham acknowledged that tax rises could be necessary but insisted Labour’s manifesto commitments not to increase workers’ income tax, national insurance or VAT rates would remain. He indicated that tax hikes could be in Labour’s next election manifesto, saying: “We will put them before the country at the right time, and we will hopefully proceed with people’s consent.”
Political Gamble
Burnham, whose father has Alzheimer’s disease, promised to help “my dad and the millions like him” and said fixing social care could save the NHS billions. He described the failure to address the crisis as a “major dereliction of public duty.”
He indicated he was prepared to gamble his political reputation: “I know this will require me to put what political capital I have on the table and it could wear down that political capital in some ways. But I’m prepared to do it. The risks of failing to act are too great.”
