A group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket have made substantial profits by placing well-timed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire, according to an analysis of blockchain data. The bets were made on Tuesday, hours before Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6.30pm ET, despite his earlier threats of severe military action.
At least 50 wallets placed significant 'yes' bets on the ceasefire before the announcement, with many of these wallets making their first-ever trades on this event. One wallet, created on Tuesday at about 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents and cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, created on 6 April, won $125,500, while a wallet created just 12 minutes before Trump's post made $31,908 on yes bets at 33.7 cents, earning an estimated profit of $48,500.
The timing and size of these bets have raised questions about potential insider trading. Similar patterns have been observed on Polymarket before, such as during the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in January, where newly created accounts also profited from well-timed wagers. Bipartisan groups in Congress have introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.
Polymarket has labelled the Iran-US ceasefire contract as 'disputed' because Iran continues to place restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks persist. The dispute could take up to 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the wallets, and only Polymarket has the internal data to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House warned staff against using their positions to place bets in futures markets in an email on 24 March, a day after Trump ordered a brief pause in some Iran strikes. The White House confirmed the email's existence on Friday, citing executive branch ethics regulations that prohibit government employees from gambling while on government property or duty.
