New Polymarket Accounts Profit Heavily from Timely Iran Ceasefire Bets
On Tuesday, a group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific and well-timed bets on whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire, resulting in substantial profits totalling hundreds of thousands of dollars. These bets were placed despite escalating rhetoric from former President Donald Trump and few public signals indicating an imminent deal.
Strategic Betting Patterns and Profits
An analysis of publicly available blockchain data, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, reveals that at least 50 new accounts, or wallets, placed significant "yes" bets on Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire via a Truth Social post around 6:30 PM ET. These were the first transactions for these particular wallets.
One wallet, created at approximately 10 AM ET on Tuesday, invested roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents per unit. On Polymarket, buy-ins range from $0 to $1, reflecting a 0% to 100% probability assessment by users. This account later cashed out with a profit of $200,000.
Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded specifically on this event, secured a win of $125,500. Additionally, a wallet created just 12 minutes before Trump's post made $31,908 in "yes" bets at 33.7 cents, estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price at that time may have reflected last-minute diplomatic efforts by Pakistan to extend Trump's deadline by two weeks.
Context and Speculation
These bets occurred against a backdrop of heightened tensions. Earlier in the day, Trump issued a stark warning on social media, stating that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 PM ET deadline. Some analysts speculate that the bettors might have anticipated Trump backing down, given his history during his second term of making bold threats only to retreat—a pattern critics have mockingly labelled as "Trump always chickens out" or Taco.
However, not all users have received payouts yet. Polymarket has labelled the Iran-US ceasefire contract as "disputed" due to ongoing restrictions by Iran on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile attacks in the region. This dispute could take up to 48 hours to resolve.
Anonymity and Platform Mechanisms
Public blockchain data does not identify who controls these new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, allowing a single user to create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket holds the internal data necessary to determine whether these were genuinely new users or existing users opening additional accounts. The company did not respond to requests for comment on this matter.
Historical Precedents and Regulatory Concerns
This trading pattern mirrors earlier episodes on Polymarket. For instance, newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, profiting hundreds of thousands of dollars. Similar clusters of accounts have repeatedly capitalized on well-timed bets related to military actions involving Iran.
Such activities have sparked public and congressional scrutiny, with questions raised about whether some traders are using inside information to gain profits in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation aimed at broadening the definition of insider trading to include these markets. Even major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have acknowledged the need for expanded regulations to address insider trading concerns.
Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written extensively on prediction markets and industry regulations, emphasized the urgency of this issue. "This is why these markets need regulation," he stated. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
