A series of newly established accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket have generated substantial profits through remarkably well-timed wagers concerning a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The bets were executed on April 7th, just hours before President Donald Trump announced a two-week truce via a Truth Social post at approximately 6:30 PM Eastern Time.
Precise Timing Despite Escalating Rhetoric
These strategic bets were placed despite a complete absence of public indicators suggesting a ceasefire deal was imminent. In fact, President Trump's rhetoric had intensified dramatically earlier that same day. He issued a stark warning on social media, declaring that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran failed to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 PM ET deadline.
An analysis of publicly accessible blockchain data, conducted using the crypto analytics platform Dune, reveals that at least 50 distinct digital wallets or accounts made significant "Yes" bets on the ceasefire occurring prior to Trump's announcement. Notably, these were the inaugural bets placed by these specific wallets, indicating they were created specifically for this event.
Substantial Profits from New Accounts
The scale of the profits is considerable. One wallet, created around 10 AM ET on Tuesday, placed approximately $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents per contract. This user subsequently cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another account, established on April 6th, shows a win of $125,500 from trading on this exact event.
A particularly striking example involves a wallet created just 12 minutes before Trump's ceasefire post. This account made $31,908 worth of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents each and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price at that late hour may have reflected diplomatic efforts by the Pakistani government to persuade Trump to extend his deadline.
Patterns of Suspicious Activity
This trading pattern mirrors earlier suspicious episodes on the Polymarket platform. Newly created accounts previously placed large wagers hours before the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls these new wallets. Polymarket employs proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user could theoretically create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket possesses the internal data required to determine whether these were genuinely new users or existing users opening additional accounts. The company did not respond to requests for comment on this matter.
Market Disputes and Regulatory Concerns
While some users secured handsome profits, others must await payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7th Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed." This dispute arises from Iran's continued restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing missile attacks in the region. Resolution could take up to 48 hours.
These incidents have repeatedly raised serious questions from the public and members of Congress about whether some traders are utilizing inside information to profit on prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation aimed at broadening the legal definition of insider trading to explicitly include these markets.
Even the two largest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have acknowledged the need to expand the definition of insider trading within their own ecosystems.
Calls for Enhanced Oversight
Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written extensively on prediction markets and industry regulations, emphasized the urgency of this issue. "This is precisely why these markets require regulation," he stated. "We cannot allow individuals to trade with inside information and simultaneously expect other traders to feel comfortable participating in these markets."
The possibility remains that some Polymarket users placed their bets anticipating Trump would back down, given his documented habit during his second term of making bold threats only to retreat—a phenomenon critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. However, the precise timing and concentrated nature of the bets from new accounts continue to fuel scrutiny and demands for greater transparency and oversight in the rapidly evolving prediction market sector.
